Argentina, Economic Transformation with Management Logic

ARGENTINA, ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION WITH MANAGEMENT LOGIC

In this reasoning scene, it’s common to be made recognition to the processes that do not fully work. As in this case is about a country, we identified the exports business as which works not at full pelt:

· When a company is analyzed by itself (we suppose to see the country
like a company), its strategy, its executives, its personnel, the applied technology, the procedures, the used processes, it asks itself: What are we doing is the correct thing or the best thing than it can be obtained?

· The fact to be giving priority to fiscal and monetary subject’s makes that the export businesses, those of high potential to solve varied interesting issues, are being wasted. Are there businesses or products in which Argentina should try to do and it hasn’t done it yet? Could we add value in terms of labor? Could we add products or services that are not in our exports product list at this moment? Do we export efficiently using technological and productive resources and the infrastructure at full capacity? Do we optimize them? If these questions have a majority "not" by answer, the second step is:

· Identification of who could do it better: The globalization requires understanding of the pressures and reaction. There are demands of high level of technology and know how that today we do not have. The countries that have them and can use them must be in our associative plans. The reason is if we don’t have which they have and this context goes on, it will be very difficult or maybe impossible to march. The globalization has made a clear process; it concentrated more and more "the supplier" of each good or service.

· Analysis of the value chain: If we divided the economic activities of the country into which are strategically important, in order to understand the behavior of overheads and the existing and potential sources of differentiation, we are in the correct direction.
A country as a company obtains a competitive advantage when carrying out the important strategic activities, in a way chipper or better than its competitors.
The value chain allows us to identify those business components could be solved with outsourcing. In this way we would establish a high competitive advantage over the other food producers in the world that work isolated. As example we could mention the European and North American powers.

· Decision: Outsourcing. If we had tried exports policies, which we saw we were not convinced, we would have experimented that later, the great industrial countries negotiated their future suppliers in India or South Korea. Given our competitive advantages in natural resources, agricultural foods, etc., we had intensely covered the ways of our competitive areas, which despite today it appears like exciting possibilities. Economists who strongly resisted a subsidy to stimulate exports, at the present they wish and admire the development performance of software in India. Once Argentina begins to develop its potential agricultural food, it will be enormously capitalized with the strengthening to have alongside a country with experience in generating high productivity. This simultaneously will open the doors to a growth leads by real wages different from the emergent society, which will allow us to encourage the internal market as well.

A New Focus that address To Us Towards an Economy with Management Vision -

"To harden the thought is the omen of the failure...

Make sure to be always receptive to new ideas"

George Crane

The Argentine exports represented less than the ten percent of GDP, until the debacle of the end 2001 (according to National Accounts Data showed that exports in current price was 11 pct of GDP, while analyzing Foreign Trade from Indec, the exports were 10 pct of GDP or a little superior). Any businesses division in a company that participates in just ten percent on the sales has an eventual potential growth by four or ten times its average. It is very frequent that a sleepy business wakes up and passes from a marginal cell to a main division. It is important to emphasize that from the final of the Alfonsin´s Administration, the Argentineans we have multiplied our exports by four, even our permanent delayed Pesos exchange as a consequence of the constant application of anti inflationary stabilization plans. Investing time and effort in a strategic alliance to export and to grow with an expert, is more healthful than to promote trade-off and restructuring debt. I.e. How many new products could export Argentina, with the Japanese industrial feature? Well, hundreds!

In the first place, all things that the Japanese people know that the world requests, because we must know they sleep aboard the airplanes and go by the world looking for clients and investigating potential markets with passion. Second, if we thought with Morita´s philosophy, he said: the companies (and I say the countries) must create goods and services independently of which the markets request, since the markets cannot request what it does not exist. The soybean ice cream does not exist. - Then how many people eat Milanese and pasta of soybean. Japanese companies as SONY, TOSHIBA and other that sell billions dollars per year, invest between six and ten percents of their income in R&D. This would be something as well as an annual average 8,000 million dollars. What would Argentina be investing that figure in researching and development in agriculture-foods for the world? For example other soybean products, but not as eccentric as the one of the example before, but one that eats in other parts of the world.

Argentina, economic innovation is the sustainable plan

There is an only manner to exhibit viability for a banker, to demonstrate him that the debtor will have payment capacity in the future. The main objective of a banker’s forecast is to determine in the long term the consequences from the present plan action and then to provide alternatives to support a consistent and sustainable plan. It’s clear so that a long-term financial plan is subordinated to the integral plan of country’s transactions. In fact, this is the most frequent case of any corporation to get suitable financing. A strategy and an integral action plan. When the financial performance begins with conflict so many times, it ends up affecting economic situation as in companies. This has been happening in Argentina for years. Obviously, the priority of traditional approach should change. It is necessary to develop a commercial strategy that establishes a sustainable plan with a consistent structure of financing. It is not possible to be only applied constant poultice to an extremely weak patient. When the papers are reversed and for getting the financial agreement is more important than the long-term strategy, take place inevitably the defaults and they are the consequence of the own imprudence. It seems a contradiction, IMF requests to Argentina, which Argentina by itself would have to yearn for, a maintainable plan. Would it make sense to reach at unfulfilled agreements again? We have beaten all the record of breach with assistance from IMF. The focus has always been financial; in short or medium term it never was a sustainable plan. The businesses of a corporation and a country need to be maintainable in the long term. In the private sector it sounds interesting a financing agreement in consistent form with the yield rate of the project. The criteria to analyze a country agreement do not differ, except in its terminology. One analyzes growth rates of instead of yield, fiscal sector instead of cash flow and both cut rate of financing.

Finally, satisfaction of the bonds holder will depend on future growth rates of the issued country. It is difficult to determine forecast accurately, but without a doubt it is more interesting and maintainable to do it with a plan that adds a new factor of growth. This is only possible to get it with a marginal factor; a "boom of exports".

Change of Expectations: Good news. It shines essential to make high proposals allow re-positioning international expectations and they anticipate a reversion in economy cycles. Fundamentals, country risk index, stock exchange Index, the asset value models, etc.; they do not always agree with the reality. Sometimes they are exorbitantly high, other very paltry low. - What would it have to happen so that the indicators, which anticipate the things, abruptly change in Argentina? There is a high degree of correlation between expectations and their verification in future periods. As much in consumption as in other variables, these indicators have become important publications at the time of making decisions.

There are sufficient international and domestic threats to Argentina that justifies a creative challenge. With another "only orthodox" plan it reaffirms and increases unemployment and excess capacity, generating an unimaginable social conflict. The social conditioning is strong to extend the application of contractive measures as the most traditionalistic sectors propose. If the social situations become anarchy, some countries and corporations would not wish to make any treatment with Argentina. This can include "not to buy"

Today, the size of the Argentine companies does not present advantages to face anything in solitary way. We do not have volumes. It does not exist vocation neither preparation for exporting. This is incompatible with the high necessity to generate foreign currencies and employment. We have an enormous ignorance about exports markets.

During the last twenty-five years we have been private of budget support for fostering promotion. From the Financial Reformation of 1977 that eliminated the promotional credits for the manufacturing exports, getting new markets, sales of plants with vacant possession, etc.

We have seen frustrating experiences of exporting partnerships between national colleagues, due to the individualistic culture and the lack of capital in producers´ associations.

By virtue of the harmony that would have to reign in a local partnership between pairs, it would be necessary the partners were free of rivalries and disputes.

What will we say in conferences in a couple of years? – How will we be able to maintain the fact of not innovating, having reached bad results?

Violent Market-Injection Strategic

VIOLENT MARKET-INJECTION STRATEGIC

Granting Japan the "Rent of a Fund for Marketing of Argentine Exports”

The Japan’s Opportunity

Preference Tariff

We give Japan all necessary things to impel the investments that aim to the exports. Clearly without incurring in donation attitudes as questioned at ingenuous opening of the nineties. Simply a system by which Argentina is committed to grant tariff advantages in order to facilitate the placing of Japanese product "made in Argentina".

Preferences as Direct and Specific Foreign Investor for New Exports

(Primary and Derivatives)

The Japanese investment will be part of the global process of the alliance. Therefore it will be significant because it will reveal, from our part more than other thing, the dynamic of the economic process emergent of all proposals. Not only Japan, every investor, invests in a country when the conditions are attractive and the development and profits perspective are considered with a sufficient safety margin. Since the debate in which sovereignty is again in the center of political discussion, compatibility of the Japanese investment is absolutely dissuasive of any doubt that moves away the disappointment of the critic sectors of foreign investments we have experienced. This is necessary to set criteria and to obtain support for public policy.

Diversification

Japan will be able to compensate its "excessive focus" in electronics – mechanic-metallurgy and computer science. It will diversify its products portfolio and Argentina will send new food developments for a starving world. Japan will take advantage of its experience in industrial and exports integration processes.

A country that reached that the old "Made in Japan", synonymous of low quality, become the paradigm of excellence and innovation, can do much.

A great possibility is opened itself, to enter new markets to compete with European in land foods. The World-wide Trade Organization proposes for 2050 a world without import tariffs. We are just in time. Its commercial leadership in the SEA area will consolidate before that. It could possibly, if wishes so, manufacture its own foods for internal consumption.

Threats That Japan Suffers Today

Its excessive "focus" in electronics – mechanic-metallurgy and computer science. Now its products portfolio is a commodity. Japan lacks natural resources to diversify its supply (foods, energy and sowing lands). Japan imports and spends money in those items that doesn’t have. It will save in this.

Argentina’s Opportunity

We shall receive foreign direct investment instead of financial investment. The buying power improvement compares to ones abroad constitutes one of the most important justification than today we must recover, after the strong devaluation of our currency. Even more, when the main parties and politicians have accepted the autarkic positions are unconceivable at the present time. In respect of possible questions on “if this alliance could cause problems with our main partner. Mercosur? Clearly, the answer is negative. Considering reciprocity and commercial ethics, it is not possible, since the foreign capital that is invested in Brazil, receives as general principle equal legal processing as Brazilian laws grant to national capital, specially being prohibited any type of discrimination, not taken into account in the foreign investments regime, regulated by law from 1962.

Imports of Essential Good not produced in the country

It will be only possible having financial resources and now we are not clearly having foreign currencies and any other financing, which does not come from exports, and capitals that are related to the export. An inadequate handling of the foreign investments caused a fall in the buying power in the long-term. A ferocious devaluation partly has to do with the outflow of capitals, royalty and dividends payments that strongly surpassed the income from exports or the fall in imports as a consequence of substitution of imports in the last years.

The International Japanese companies that come to settle or to be associated to export, will give rise to an own currency flow in both directions. The Japanese companies do not have as main objective the quick return in record time to their headquarters. Also it is possible to infer from its observation, Japanese companies that are associates to local companies, always looked for maximizing their profits in the medium and long term. They search to increase market share more than outlandish profits in the short term. It will create Joint Ventures and Trading Companies together with local companies. We will industrialize primary products and foods "adding value" instead of selling grains, crude oil and meat. The employment will grow; we will improve our international perspective.

Import Technology, Know How and Capitalize Our Exporting Patrimony in the Long Term.

In respect of introduction of new technology, this fact could constitute a profit business for Argentina in the medium term. For taking off, our industry needs to implement developments verified for food manufacture. For that reason, the technology as much as investments they are two indispensable tools. We have already proved with intermediate positions trying to create a capital market, with AFJP (pension funds) and other types to aim cash flows to the production, the experience were frustrating. We have as an example, Japanese companies that at the end of the war received USA capitals, and they not only contributed with their technology, but financial resources as well. The strong saving capacity and capitalization of those corporations, supported by rigorous development plans, allowed the Japanese capitals slowly retook the control of the main companies. In addition it also made possible that Japan developed own technologies and since twenty years it has been an exporter of know how to such industrial centers that before supplied them. With the plan running a phenomenal explosion of foreign exchange took place.

Incorporate the Best Production Practices (the inventors of the Kaizen, Kamban, and Just in Time, Quality Circles, Jidohhka, and Deming).

In order to understand the magnitude of which we would be incorporating we review some basic concepts. If we watched them under a retrospective manner will allow us to understand more about how in only forty years from the end of the war, Japan reached the second position as worldwide economic leader. Kaizen means improvement and it is a key of Japanese competitive advantage. In addition it means continuous improvement in personal, familiar, social life and in the work. When it is applied at work, it is continuous improvement that involves all, businessmen, managers and workers equally.

Operations Scale, reduction of production costs, Just in Time is a technique developed for the production control and the stocks that is part of the Toyota’s system production. It was created to avoid the waste of production. Warusa-Kagen is a term that means the observation of the things that still are not a problem, but they do not go absolutely well. The worker is who becomes a first grade of improvement and prevention. Kamban means signboard. This is a communication tool in the “Just in Time” system of production and stocks control. We could follow analyzing the benefits that means to incorporate the technology and the practices that reached highest productivity; best quality and flexible technologies for manufacture practices in a very short time, by means of an alliance with Japan. To better prices of exports in an economy as Argentina, better internal prices that benefit our local consumers. As a result, it would grow the employment based on the activity levels and it is going to generate a virtuous circle of production and employment.

Immediate access to Traditional Markets of Japan

The increasing importance of Asian markets for the Japanese exports, those fully surpasses the exports volume to the United States, endorses the strategic interest of Japan and ours to join, to participate in the consolidation of that economic geography base of domestic consumers in the Asian Pacific area. The direct foreign investments made in the region by Japan, show that trade with Asia will continue increasing, since a significant percentage belongs to the commerce "intra-company" of the conglomerates and its regional subsidiaries. Could we go into markets together with Japan and its subsidiaries in the region, to diversify and commercialize new products from Argentina’s plants? The answer is yes.

We could extend its product portfolio with product lines or families that are absolutely lacking in it. Commerce and investment affect the slight joint of industrial and technological Japanese policy. This situation contributes to explain why we could copy the Asian model (taking into consideration the differences of the case) that has become a region more and more centered in commerce and investment joints together Japan, with so favorable results. The idea is to place us in Japan’s hand since today it is the dominant player in Asia, technological leader in the region, main supplier of capital assets, "the main exporting center", its main financing source and external assistant in development and more and more main exports destination.

Healthful Business Relations

Japanese companies have made sure not only profits of participant companies, but a maintained increase the regional productivity, as well as improvement of living conditions and consumption in all countries in which they conducted its actions. We observed that despite being an eminently private process headed by the own companies, the growth of the Japanese direct investment is a fundamental component of the industrial and technological policy of Japan. Frequently it has been reinforced by assistance development programs handle by the Japanese government. The growth in Japanese direct investment is the immediate and non-accidental result of maturity of the own internal market and the increasing necessity to beat local limitations in the economic growth.

Increase of local costs of production, saturation in the internal market, technological development, protectionism and commercial barriers that other countries apply.

Appropriation of "Cultural Know How" from Asian Markets

After the Japanese government lifts restrictions to capital flows toward outside, the national companies began to take action with extreme aggressiveness in order to grow in sales and to produce even more in the regional markets of the Asian east. In this way they exceeded the American investments. How they do? They invest whenever possible in majority subsidiaries to make sure cheaper supplying sources for they production, a big part of them are exported. Between 1977 and 1988, the direct investment of Japan in the region of Southeast Asia quickly grew more than twice with regard to the United States that was tripled. In that period the exports reached the sidereal number of 32 billion dollars. Exports to third countries, as well as the direct sales in the local market of receiving country, have continued being the main attraction for new investments from Japan. At the same time that countries as Korea, Indonesia or Malaysia arose as receiving for investment for the manufactures production, for many Japanese companies the Southeast Asia quickly became its main inputs source for the production and provisions for exporting to other regions of the world.

Long-term Planning:

The enormous exports of Argentine products made by the alliance with Japan must be made with increasing levels of added value. It is a central objective of industrial policy and economic planning in general, since with this proposal in the future, we aspired to generate currency income from financing sources unknown.

Since the mechanisms of market by themselves cannot guarantee stable and necessary foreign currency income based on a mere interchange of goods and services to serve the renegotiation of national debt, this proposal occupies an absent and interesting space for all interested sectors. I am proposing to use the commerce capacity intra Japanese company with its own channel of distribution of the subsidiaries in all parts of the world. In addition, this will grant huge advantages for barrier of imports in biggest and protectionist countries. For example in the United States 73 percent of Japanese products that enter the country, do it through Japanese companies that are settled down. Everything is made within the legal channels of commerce and competition, but full optimizing the existing possibilities.

"Pro industrial” influences from Japanese Companies

Repeating that peculiar strategy government-industry practices by Japan, with approved goals by consensus in the long term, in which the essential is not the speculation and fictional immediacy, but the well being, the balanced development of society and economy as a whole, will represent a decisive and influential paper for Argentineans of the last generations. Creating and teaching the results and verifying the best standard of living that offers this option, we could have an own cultural dynamics of affection for production and work, which certainly we have left on one side. We could replicate the Japan Productivity Center, a labor University that has a program to educate the union executives in strong concepts of businesses administration, so that they could negotiate better with management and could work in a close way.

A Cultural Transformation in Argentina

We needed a change in conceptual vision. We finally began to play in two leagues simultaneously. The Combat League in a short term and the Match League of Long Term. This burst of a productive economy of exports, is not other thing that recognition and correction of our derivations. The irruption of a commercial- productive focus changes the way to do businesses and therefore the form to plan the life of Argentine citizens. We passed from twenty-five years depositing money for thirty days to strategic plans and productive development. We had first “the mother country contractor”, but later the “bank contractor”. Before the privatizations, the industrialists were suspected because they made businesses with the state. After the privatizations and the financial opening the banks lived doing businesses lending money to the state.
Why must we finish the “exclusively financial focus” in Argentina?
(Paraphrasing Bill Clinton in his electoral campaign) It is the clumsy culture!
The financial focus is an approach that has much to do with the Anglo-American culture and by the way it is useful to them. This perspective applied to businesses allows admitting the free circulation of capital, without of uncontrolled or excessive volatileness risks. This form to operate is related and requires what I could call a " conscience of own thing " as a country and individual citizens. For these cultures transcendental thing is the foundation. From their origins, they are countries with societies founded on Biblical principles emanated from "the Reformation", in time they made flexible, but always present in the popular thought. Respect by the private ownership in their communities, personal and familiar dependency of the own effort and the aid of God. The degree of necessary controls in a society with those original bases, is noticeably inferior to ones from a society that has lived without foundations by many years, in a permanent instability situation (historical reference: - from few years of independence, we already lived the anarchy) "every man for him self" could be written in the knavery manuals of the leadership in general. From the evaded one of his social layer, to the exaggerated conscientious public employee with three last names of his ancestry, although so foolish and rogue as the first one. Clearly, these are not economic problems but it influences and takes effect on the economy’s operations in a categorical and decisive way.
Living on foundations, is intimately bound to the reformist ethics, where people believe in the system because in consistent form, they are mainly confident and with a higher level of commitment than the average of the countries whose foundation is less solid. It’s for that reason this citizen are more confidant and his legal system works. A previous electoral survey in the United States showed that the ninety and nine percents of the voters would not vote by a non-believer President or without an explicit religious commitment. Is it truth that nobody imagines in Argentina a capable President to request pardon publicly? I could mention even the humiliating examples of a North American President, giving to details of his affair before the television cameras to the whole country. Later, a population that after listening to him forgave him and increased his popularity in vertiginous way. For many reasons that situation is not possible to live it here in Argentina today. I would like to imagine to a civil employee apologizes, but it does not happen. The ex- minister of the Convertibility, Domingo Cavallo, affirmed in the United States that he would never more accept to be Minister of Economy, wont he? In addition, "he does not have anything for regretting". An ex-
President and present possible candidate says: "my government was a most successful". The founding President of “cacerolazo” (hit the pot) or the phrase "all of you go away" said soon after his final leaving by helicopter: "a plot decided to finish my government". In addition another candidate for President, pretends that he was not Minister of the ex-
President De La Rúa during two thirds of its mandate. Three ladies with strong mass media image, two recognized Representative plus an ex- Minister and at this time all of them are candidates, that made campaign pre-electoral with De La Rúa, they never mentioned their political responsibility. A private university that it had recognized authorities and professors as Minister of Economy, Vice Minister, President of the Central Bank (BCRA), as thus also other civil employees in the economic and financial area, they do not assume responsibilities. The President of this university declared in a non-impartial mass media that all the misfortunes of Argentina are in the Congress and the politicians for those he and his training center were dedicated. It seems that in Argentina, nobody is mistaken nor regrets his errors. And much less one is prepared to apologize. Then on this way, the executives or bureaucrats of those societies of reformist origin do not consider reasonable to help. Remember that for its conformation, God and/or the personal effort are the one in charge to help, each one makes his part. Although it is a universal law and non-reformist, a principle to request aid is the following: first it is necessary to lament the errors, to assume them and then to request tolerance. Our politicians and economists, when they were in power, did not do it and they haven’t still done it. Those, who allowed the practice to take money cash and to spend it over the possibilities, and left the disadvantage to the next, they have not perturbed at least. This is long questionable. But by other side, moneylenders and bond investors, ambitious to yield crude and unrealizable profit, must become a reconsideration

The new exemplars

The new exemplars

"I have a dream"

Rvd. Dr Martin Luther King

(The dream of racial equality was difficult but it arrived and changed the history of the United States)

A Simple Proposal to leave the standard monotony

This is a no conventional but vital proposal, with a stable and reliable partner who removes us from the isolation. The conditions of a long-term agreement with the IMF estimate conditions that before they have already appeared as accurate handling our economy to incorrect results. From the beginning of the globalization and long before in the capitalist world in the pos war countries, there was important variability between the different economies from the same system. France, Italy, Germany and Japan made different things with each other, in different times and all as well, made distant things with respect to the United States and Great Britain. Nevertheless, all this countries are part of G7. Why must we do something uniforms and conventional according to IMF’s norms? - For example Malaysian said not, Korea said: this is correct, but this one isn’t acceptable. Perhaps Chile could wait, also Hong Kong and Singapore resisted in the middle of the Asian crisis, but Argentina needs something new. The orthodox plans imply the fulfillment of goals. We have seen that fifteen among nineteen opportunities they were not reached by Argentina.

Instead of fixing only fiscal and monetary orthodox objects with aura of serious, we establish a strategic audacious proposal. An orthodox economist will say, “It is impossible to duplicate exports in a year! He is right; it is impossible to reach that with an orthodox plan. It is necessary to break the conventional scheme. No exponential change can be obtained with a habitual adjustment. I remember an occasion, when I was an executive and the sales had declined. Taking advantage of the fact that the government had pay old prevision debts through bonds, we arranged a selling operation of domestic appliances in exchange for bonds, against the opinion of all staff. The company was allied with an expert

Bank, both facilitated the beneficiaries’ cash and suppressed the troublesome proceeding of shareholding. Gary Friedman, a young lawyer who got tired of the verdicts in North America; guilty or innocent asked himself: Will it be other alternative than this traditional bureaucratic one? As a result of that search, against whichever legal eminence’s opposition existed, it began the practice of "mediation”, which separated from the scene nothing less than the judge who made the decisions. I am music professor and an active Christian. Many people think that in churches only formal musicians, dressed in black play, and the atmosphere in which they sing to God is solemn and classic as in the Westerns. They should see "Delirious" (English musical group) just to mention a group. There are hundreds of them that fill football fields with believers who had abandon their communion with God. Color attires, fashion haircuts and electronic devices congregate Christians.

Competition among economists to prove who was the most orthodox stimulated resignation and eliminated the ingenious way (ingenuity). We must try new strategies of economic policy and be involved in changing intellectual habits. Let us experience the way to solve new problems with creativity.

Ambito, Consecuencias de la Globalización y la ultra ortodoxia

Por Pablo Tigani*
Para: Ámbito Financiero- Comercio Exterior
Las consecuencias procedentes de la globalización de los mercados y las recetas ultra ortodoxas para resolver los desequilibrios macroeconómicos, están siendo expresamente cuestionadas.
Comenzando con los acuerdos comerciales hasta las políticas aconsejadas a los países en desarrollo, se han tomado decisiones en ejercicio de voluntades políticas con una evidente orientación filosófica.
La insistencia de los organismos multilaterales de crédito en prescribir procedimientos estándares que no resolvieron los problemas concretos que trataban, ayudó mucho para examinar cuales serían los riesgos de seguir en esa dirección.
Por muchos años no se ha podido realizar una discusión serena y generosa fuera del enfoque neo clásico. Por estos días anduvo Joseph Stiglitz, lamentablemente interesó poco para la televisión, no más de cinco minutos; ninguna universidad famosa o fundación de estudios económicos organizó un debate con su participación. - ¿Intransigencia intelectual o temor?
En los últimos años, los ejecutivos del FMI y los economistas nacionales excitados en sus recomendaciones, han postergado los problemas de la economía real, ajustándolos a la imposibilidad de proponer innovación alguna. Alguien dijo: ¡No se puede modificar la ley de gravedad! Como si la economía y la física fueran lo mismo. Esos comportamientos absolutistas, son consistentes con otras formas de gobierno y otros tiempos pasados. Abandonar las negociaciones con un país que no siga criterios intransigentes sin objeciones, será en adelante ir a contramano de un mundo que quiere mejorar la globalización.
Economistas contemporáneos: es ineludible inventar. Ingenuity y mucho para mejorar la calidad de vida de los habitantes de los países. Políticas económicas innovadoras y compasión, pueden mejorar mucho la perspectiva para encarar soluciones. Es necesario descubrir nuevas formas de crecer con distribución más equitativa.
En Argentina ya están expresándose las encuestas en términos de intención de voto. La gente joven; los estudiantes y profesionales nos preguntan acerca de las recetas aplicadas, puesto que son las que aprenden hoy mismo en algunas prestigiosas universidades:
-¿No es que privatizamos para ser más eficientes?
-¿Cómo vamos a negociar bajar calidad de servicios con respetables empresas de comunicaciones, en la era del “total quality service”?
-Fortalecimos al sistema financiero subiendo los requisitos de liquidez y capital, pero las tasas de interés nunca reflejaron beneficios para los tomadores.- ¿Fue bueno estimular el endeudamiento del sector privado?
¿No es que con entidades más sólidas desaparecían los bancos que recibían redescuentos extravagantes?
¿No construimos un sistema privado para administrar jubilaciones que no fueran saqueadas por los distintos gobiernos? - ¿y el mercado de capitales emergentes de esos fondos donde está?
Mientras claramente están dadas las condiciones para comenzar una discusión, tratemos de hacerlo con humildad, sin chicanas ni metiendo miedo.
Durante muchos años se sostuvo que los mercados funcionaban a la perfección y que los gobiernos no tenían que intervenir absolutamente en nada. Quienes así se manifestaron en Argentina, ejercieron su derecho; cultivando además, una especie de monopolio de la verdad económica. Ocuparon todos los cargos públicos y defendieron cualquier cosa que apoyara esa línea de pensamiento, inclusive presidentes como Menem y De la Rúa. Es más, algunos dijeron que el FMI fue filántropo con Argentina, disimulando la enorme ineficiencia que describe el hecho de prestar mal.
Es posible que los afectados por esas políticas en toda la geografía (plomeros y carpinteros del Norte y del Sur) y quienes les escuchan, tengan más que decir. Estemos atentos observando y oyendo.
Ningún economista sueña con volver a un estado intervencionista que componga todas las torpezas que operan las plazas financieras. Pero tampoco ya nadie tiene dudas que la globalización, los mercados y la ultra ortodoxia, no están dando respuesta a los problemas sociales que hoy enfrentan los países.
*Master en Política Económica Internacional – www.hacer.com.ar

Ambito, El estado jugará un rol más activo

Por: Pablo Tigani*
Para: Ámbito Financiero-Comercio Exterior
Unas semanas atrás en Chicago, mientras salía para una reunión, eché un vistazo en una estación de TV, y un famoso programa de noticias irrumpía con un hombre esposado. Más escándalos y rumores en la bolsa por fraudes en los balances, provocaron en los días sucesivos expresiones críticas y serios temores, que hicieron bajar el índice Dow Jones por debajo de los 8.000 puntos. Esta situación impulsó la mediación directa del estado, que además del “show off” de Bush, hizo intervencionismo de la manera más ingenua o irreverente, según se lo quiera ver.
Unos días antes, un excesivo escepticismo sobre Latinoamérica había agudizado los problemas propios que observa la región. Las decisiones de apoyo más tarde, contradecían las expresiones previas del Secretario O´Neill, con respecto a rescates de países Latinoamericanos en problemas. -¿Quien imagina los alcances que tendría ejercer más presión sobre el abreviado flujo de capitales hacia los países emergentes?
Estos contrasentidos no son nuevos, pero están exacerbados hace un año, por las exigencias internas propias del país guía. La incertidumbre permanece. -¿En que rumbo marchará el mundo y particularmente la región con el actual liderazgo internacional?
Durante la década del noventa apreciamos los beneficios de la globalización, con su maravillosa revolución de las comunicaciones y la expansión de las nuevas tecnologías de la información. Un impulso renovado del intercambio comercial entre naciones, tuvo su pico en el año 2000, donde el crecimiento del comercio mundial tocó 13% anual. Pero -¿cómo sigue ahora? – Ese crecimiento del comercio que promedió el 7/8% en algunos tramos de la década del noventa, cayó a solo 1% el año pasado. Las proyecciones actuales anticipan una desaceleración del crecimiento de Estados Unidos preocupante. Estados Unidos solo, explica el 40% del crecimiento mundial. Hablamos de un país en donde el crédito de consumo es la principal propensión del sector privado y las necesidades del sector público actúan como una fenomenal aspiradora de recursos internacionales.
El enfoque de las políticas de reformas estructurales (privatizaciones y down sizing del estado) fue acertado y exitoso porque había mucha tela para cortar luego de la caída del muro de Berlín. Pero realizado el ajuste en la mayoría de los países, se consolidó un status de crecimiento global con concentración. De este modo, se ha puesto sobre el tapete mucha ineficiencia, consecuencia incuestionable de las empíricas reglas establecidas.
¿De que otro modo, podía continuar la burbuja de los mercados o la exhuberancia irracional que denunció vaticinadamente Alan Greespan?
Los casos Enron, Xerox, Vivendi, Global Clossing, WorldCom, Andersen; son un mero aspecto de los excesos de la liberalización, una pálida muestra de lo que podemos llegar a ver, si el gobierno norteamericano deja de intervenir en auxilio del mayor velocípedo mundial que se tenga memoria.
Los países y sus economías necesitan control especulativo e intervención mínima básica para cumplir con su rol en la sociedad.
Si las necesidades de atraer capitales en el norte no cesan y/o, a la bicicleta planetaria se le sale la cadena, las posibilidades de una crisis por carencia de financiamiento, puede poner en riesgo la globalización y yo diría, hasta su mismo liderazgo. Esto sin contar los factores políticos militares y religiosos que nos tienen afligidos desde hace un año, en una guerra, por ahora fría.
A partir de los episodios del once de Setiembre comenzó a prosperar un consenso intelectual que quedó expresado claramente en las decisiones de los países adalides de la liberalización de las décadas anteriores. Estados Unidos reaccionó luego de los atentados, a pesar de que su economía venía derrapando dos trimestres antes. La decisión fue: subsidiar, aumentar el gasto y bajar la tasa de interés. En un año la FED bajó un 73% la tasa (de 6,5% a 1,75% anual), el Congreso autorizó aumentos del gasto público por más de 40 mil millones, y simultáneamente aprobó una fuerte reducción de impuestos. Recientemente el Reino Unido de Gran Bretaña, volvió a estatizar los ferrocarriles. En Argentina, Correo y Aeropuertos están renegociando contratos de concesión, mientras los servicios elementales y las comunicaciones siguen sin colapsar, aún percibiendo tarifas 72% más bajas en dólares.
Si bien los mercados y las reformas estructurales ocuparon un lugar trascendental en el primer tramo de la globalización; comienza a existir en nuestros países, convicción de que el Estado jugará un rol mucho más activo de aquí en adelante. En mi opinión es un hecho irreversible. La presentación o lanzamiento de esta nueva perspectiva; como podemos advertir, ya comenzó a ser ejecutada por las dos naciones academia, del pensamiento económico histórico.
* Master en Política Económica Internacional- www.hacer.com.ar

The reengineering of the country

"I have a dream"

Rvd. Dr Martin Luther King

(The dream of racial equality was difficult but it arrived and changed the history of the United States)

A Simple Proposal to leave the standard monotony

This is a no conventional but vital proposal, with a stable and reliable partner who removes us from the isolation. The conditions of a long-term agreement with the IMF estimate conditions that before they have already appeared as accurate handling our economy to incorrect results. From the beginning of the globalization and long before in the capitalist world in the pos war countries, there was important variability between the different economies from the same system. France, Italy, Germany and Japan made different things with each other, in different times and all as well, made distant things with respect to the United States and Great Britain. Nevertheless, all this countries are part of G7. Why must we do something uniforms and conventional according to IMF´s norms? - For example Malaysian said not, Korea said: this is correct, but this one isn’t acceptable. Perhaps Chile could wait, also Hong Kong and Singapore resisted in the middle of the Asian crisis, but Argentina needs something new. The orthodox plans imply the fulfillment of goals. We have seen that fifteen among nineteen opportunities they were not reached by Argentina.

Instead of fixing only fiscal and monetary orthodox objects with aura of serious, we establish a strategic audacious proposal. An orthodox economist will say, “ it is impossible to duplicate exports in a year! He is right; it is impossible to reach that with an orthodox plan. It is necessary to break the conventional scheme. No exponential change can be obtained with a habitual adjustment. I remember an occasion, when I was an executive and the sales had declined. Taking advantage of the fact that the government had pay old prevision debts through bonds, we arranged a selling operation of domestic appliances in exchange for bonds, against the opinion of all staff. The company was allied with an expert

Bank, both facilitated the beneficiaries’ cash and suppressed the troublesome proceeding of shareholding. Gary Friedman, a young lawyer who got tired of the verdicts in North America; guilty or innocent asked himself: Will it be other alternative than this traditional bureaucratic one? As a result of that search, against whichever legal eminence’s opposition existed, it began the practice of "mediation”, which separated from the scene nothing less than the judge who made the decisions. I am music professor and an active Christian. Many people think that in churches only formal musicians, dressed in black play, and the atmosphere in which they sing to God is solemn and classic as in the Westerns. They should see "Delirious" (English musical group) just to mention a group. There are hundreds of them that fill football fields with believers who had abandon their communion with God. Color attires, fashion haircuts and electronic devices congregate Christians.

Competition among economists to prove who was the most orthodox stimulated resignation and eliminated the ingenious way (ingenuity). We must try new strategies of economic policy and be involved in changing intellectual habits. Let us experience the way to solve new problems with creativity.

Now Japan Represents The Best Opportunity to join Argentina to The Main League. The Perfect Key is Identified In Japan.

Japan: It’s a model country, productive, exporting, great and credible with low interest rates for financing businesses. As we previously said, Argentina has always been a seductive country for Japan.

Argentina: a country with 40 percents of excess capacity, the 44 percent of its working population is unemployed and sub-occupied. Until 2001 its relation Exports/PBI was below ten percent. It was in the first place of Risk Country with long permanence in the podium. It had a massive flight of capitals in 2001. The diminution in placing product in traditional markets (the U.S.A. and Europe) makes even more attractive the incursion of new limits. Because opening, also means to be ready to export to new markets. We cannot continue being a country closed to the commerce from the side of its exports and to remain concentrated in the traditional options. A “Pro Businesses of Export” atmosphere introduces all type of initiatives. In a company and a country, the only problem with no solution is when their products or services are not sold. When facing so many budget restrictions to export as tax promotions (lines of pre-financing credit, financing and post financing), attendance to fairs; even businessmen who examine exports possibilities render and do what "they can". That is to say, it’s exported what it’s demanded. In a more hostile world, as was already described, perspectives expose higher unemployment rates in the future. It is obvious that in those circumstances the world will turn more competitive. In order to face all type of restrictions to obtain scale, we will require experts in industrialization and exports.

Radical Reengineering for Argentine Economy’s Businesses.

Pure Innovation.

We needed a change in conceptual vision. If we run this proposal in Argentina, we finally began to play in two leagues simultaneously. The Combat League in a short term and the Match League of Long Term. This burst of a productive economy of exports, is not other thing that recognition and correction of our derivations. The irruption of a commercial- productive focus changes the way to do businesses and therefore the form to plan the life of Argentine citizens. We passed from twenty-five years depositing money for thirty days to strategic plans and productive development. We had first “the mother country contractor”, but later the “bank contractor”. Before the privatizations, the industrialists were suspected because they made businesses with the state. After the privatizations and the financial opening the banks lived doing businesses lending money to the state.

A Cultural Reengineering

Why must we finish the “exclusively financial focus” in Argentina?

(Paraphrasing Bill Clinton in his electoral campaign) It is the clumsy culture!

The financial focus is an approach that has much to do with the Anglo-American culture and by the way it is useful to them. This perspective applied to businesses allows admitting the free circulation of capital, without of uncontrolled or excessive volatileness risks. This form to operate is related and requires what I could call a " conscience of own thing " as a country and individual citizens. For these cultures transcendental thing is the foundation. From their origins, they are countries with societies founded on Biblical principles emanated from "the Reformation", in time they made flexible, but always present in the popular thought. Respect by the private ownership in their communities, personal and familiar dependency of the own effort and the aid of God. The degree of necessary controls in a society with those original bases, is noticeably inferior to ones from a society that has lived without foundations by many years, in a permanent instability situation (historical reference: - from few years of independence, we already lived the anarchy) "every man for him self" could be written in the knavery manuals of the leadership in general. From the evaded one of his social layer, to the exaggerated conscientious public employee with three last names of his ancestry, although so foolish and rogue as the first one. Clearly, these are not economic problems but it influences and take effect on the economy’s operations in a categorical and decisive way.

Living on foundations, is intimately bound to the reformist ethics, where people believe in the system because in consistent form, they are mainly confident and with a higher level of commitment than the average of the countries whose foundation is less solid. It’s for that reason this citizen are more confidant and his legal system works. An previous electoral survey in the United States showed that the ninety and nine percents of the voters would not vote by a non-believer President or without an explicit religious commitment. Is it truth that nobody imagines in Argentina a capable President to request pardon publicly? I could mention even the humiliating examples of a North American President, giving to details of his affair before the television cameras to the whole country. Later, a population that after listening to him, forgave him and increased his popularity in vertiginous way. For many reasons that situation is not possible to live it here in Argentina today. I would like to imagine to a civil employee apologizes, but it does not happen. The ex- minister of the Convertibility, affirmed in the United States that he would never more accept to be Minister of Economy, wont he? In addition, "he does not have anything for regretting". An ex-

President and present possible candidate says: "my government was a most successful". The founding President of “cacerolazo” (hit the pot) or the phrase "all of you go away" said soon after his final leaving by helicopter: "a plot decided to finish my government". In addition another candidate for President, pretends that he was not Minister of the ex-

President De La Rúa during two thirds of its mandate. Three ladies with strong mass media image, two recognized Representative plus an ex- Minister and at this time all of them are candidates, that made campaign pre-electoral with De La Rúa, they never mentioned their political responsibility. A private university that it had recognized authorities and professors as Minister of Economy, Vice Minister, President of the Central Bank (BCRA), as thus also other civil employees in the economic and financial area, they do not assume responsibilities. The President of this university declared in a non-impartial mass media that all the misfortunes of Argentina are in the Congress and the politicians for those he and his training center were dedicated. It seems that in Argentina, nobody is mistaken nor regrets his errors. And much less one is prepared to apologize. Then on this way, the executives or bureaucrats of those societies of reformist origin do not consider reasonable to help. Remember that for its conformation, God and the personal effort are the one in charge to help, each one makes his part. Although it is a universal law and non-reformist, a principle to request aid is the following: first it is necessary to lament the errors, to assume them and then to request tolerance. Our politicians and economists, when they were in power, did not do it and they haven’t still done it. Those, who allowed the practice to take money cash and to spend it over the possibilities, and left the disadvantage to the next, they have not perturbed at least. This is long questionable. But by other side, moneylenders and bond investors, ambitious to yield crude and unrealizable profit, must become a reconsideration: Who are really their friends in Argentina?

Gold medal and standards recipes

Gold Medal and Standards Recipes

Gold Medals

An empty and declining civilization idolizes the apparent refinement education that some universities offer to. They adore supposed eminences; they say the numbers and the data that in appearance are solid and conclusive. In debatable and old-fashioned concepts, the capacity of an individual link together strongly to the ability of memorize and applying the stored information. In the university the highest qualifications were to people who had highest memory, or who were strongest concentrated in a single activity. In that evaluation scheme the Main Colin Powell could not qualify for Bush’s government and even Irving Wallace mustn’t have written so many books so extraordinarily meticulous. Additionally we can speak about Bill Gates who did not complete his studies. In the world, the conceptually old economists, usually comment that such-and-such person was gold medal by his qualifications, as if that assigned him more probabilities of been success in a position or their theoretical arguments could give them passion by the economy of their country and their people. On the other hand it would seem that the numbers never lie, nor distort the reality. It is always spoken of who has the best numbers in such-and-such country and really there are them good and very rigorous. But many people are convinced and transmit those ideas and even they make believe to the people that its life depends unconditionally on fundamentals. If the economy figures and the economists with better marks graduated at best universities, are the success indicators. How could the Argentine case be explained without looking for a scapegoat? Something that we have learned is that nobody knows enough to take a right guess of the GDP growth with a ten percents of variation margin in the next year. I don’t want to play the formation, student abilities and the high educational houses down. I myself, have a higher degree, all we have necessity of those knowledge. If a professional doesn’t know instruments, if he has not made exercises and works, she couldn’t participate in the connection of any idea and that must be deduced.

Argentina, Its Experience when applying Standard Formulas

If the Argentineans wish to offer a sustainable plan, it is sure that we can’t settle down from the same scheme that was experienced because of results reached. IMF’s Agreement as the nineteen signed from 1958, produced fifteen breach of contract, four of them without at least taking place the decided payments. But what is worse, from the last years of ex- President Alfonsin with the "Spring Plan " seven agreements were signed and it was only possible to be fulfilled one.

Since then we have already requested eighteen consecutive waivers the to the IMF´s board.

Since the sudden end of Proviso government in 1976, the stabilization plans generated a debt by 143 billions dollars. Nearly (globalize versions) from the Tequila we have had 20 trimesters with negative variation of the GDP (two third parts of the last seven years) - Which would be the reason to continue insisting? The alternative is a "boom of exports" in an innovating and creative scheme.

Ambito, "Hello!, Duhalde es peronista"

Para Ámbito Financiero-Comercio Exterior
Por Pablo Tigani*

"El capitalismo internacional es frió e inhumano; el capital de la industria y del comercio representa, a nuestro sentir, la herramienta de trabajo de nuestros hombres de empresa". (6-9-1944)
"Hemos comprado los ferrocarriles y los teléfonos; estamos comprando las usinas y expropiando los servicios públicos, y seguiremos en esa tarea"(9-6-1947)
"Desde hoy en adelante hemos de industrializar al país para que nuestro trabajo lo realicen obreros argentinos..."(30-6-1947)
"La primera acción del gobierno para reconquistar su independencia económica fue nacionalizar el B.C.R.A. Sería Como decir que nosotros hemos nacionalizado el gobierno nacional"(26-7-1947)
"¿Qué era el B.C.R.A.?- Un organismo al servicio absoluto de los intereses de la banca particular e internacional... decidía la política monetaria, con total indiferencia respecto de la política económica que la Nación debía desarrollar"(26-7-1949)*Expresiones y fragmentos recogidos del libro DOCTRINA PERONISTA del Presidente J.D.Perón -CS EDICIONES-Feb/1996-impresiones Sudamérica
Durante la presente gestión, cayeron 40% las importaciones, generando 1.500MM de dólares de superávit comercial mensual. El Sistema Financiero ha dejado atrás 25 años de historia, desde la RF Junio de 1977 (Ley 21.526)-Se reformó la Carta Orgánica del B.C.R.A., un acontecimiento político de una magnitud fenomenal. Posteriormente, dejó la presidencia del Central, un ex funcionario del FMI y asumió la conducción un político peronista. Ya van seis meses de tarifas congeladas de empresas de servicios privatizadas en la década del 90. En el mismo lapso, la pesificación asimétrica multiplicó por 4 los pasivos de las empresas extranjeras que se fondean en el exterior, disminuyendo a la vez 30% sus activos a cobrar. Para las deudoras locales se licuaron sus pasivos en dólares, con la transitoria Ley de Quiebras en un contexto de pesificación.
Como consecuencia de lo expuesto, no sería para nada insólito que las compañías de servicios públicos privatizados, le restituyan las llaves al estado; las extranjeras consideren marcharse del país y los bancos, luego de recibir redescuentos millonarios, ingresen en un proceso de nacionalización derivado.
Seguidamente, la devaluación que es consistente con una política de sustitución de importaciones y promoción de exportaciones, podría generar cambios de titularidad de empresas en manos extranjeras o de private equity funds, a sus antiguos dueños.
Repasemos entonces las supuestas improvisaciones emergenciales e indoctas de Duhalde:
El B.C.R.A. se subordinó explícitamente a la política económica del gobierno. Tácitamente se estaría dando un proceso de nacionalización de la banca y también de los servicios públicos.
Producto de la devaluación; está en marcha un cambio de escenario en el comercio y la producción, vía sustitución de importaciones y empresas extranjeras.
Elaborémonos tres preguntas: - ¿Estarán acertados los economistas que explican como Duhalde no sabe nada de Economía y hace todo mal? - ¿Es correcto hacer análisis económico de una administración extraordinariamente peronista desde el abreviado razonamiento clásico?-¿No será que los economistas neo mediáticos, no saben nada de historia y de política?
Duhalde sin balcón y sin carisma, en solo seis meses, reanudó diversos y previsibles desenlaces ideológicos peronistas. La magnitud de sus decisiones económicas, ha convertido el aplauso del Congreso, en una simple apostilla baladí.
*Master en Política Económica Internacional- Presidente de www.hacer.com.ar

Conferencia en FOEMA, 28/06/2002

La teoría económica no deja en ciertas cuestiones margen para la discusión, aunque en otro orden de cosas, comienza a generar un debate mundial.
Una economía que sufre la sucesión de shocks externos e internos como la nuestra, tiene menos del uno por ciento de probabilidades asociadas de ocurrencia en términos de repetición, en los próximos cien años. Durante la convertibilidad Argentina carecía de instrumentos de política cambiaria, monetaria y fiscal como para amortiguar los golpes sucesivos que afectaron la dinámica de la demanda agregada. En una economía cuyos precios no eran plenamente flexibles, el fenómeno de deflación con recesión, nos acompañó por cuarenta y dos meses, hasta la salida del Presidente De la Rúa.
Examinemos cuales fueron las causas exteriores e intrínsecas que afectaron negativamente a la economía.
Los fenomenales shocks a la cuenta de capital producto de las crisis de Asia, Rusia y Brasil provocaron una contracción de los flujos netos a los países emergentes, de U$S 220 mil millones a solo U$S 83 mil millones en tres años. Esto implicó que se duplicara la prima de riesgo y consecuentemente el costo del financiamiento doméstico. No fueron menos importantes los shocks anticompetitivos a la cuenta corriente, producto del deterioro de los términos de intercambio, explicado por la caída de los precios de nuestros commodities en el mismo periodo de 32%; la crisis recesiva pre devaluatoria y pos devaluatoria de Brasil que colapsó la demanda y contrajo las exportaciones argentinas, que hasta ese momento significaban el 28% del total. Podemos mencionar por último, la apreciación del dólar que desde Abril del 95 acumuló 40%.
En lo que respecta a los shocks domésticos y en medio de semejante contexto, Machinea intenta reactivar la economía, apelando a un ajuste fiscal inconexo con las promesas electorales que llevaron a la Alianza al poder. Para recomponer credibilidad y bajar el riesgo país, el Ministro intentó realizar un ensayo que ya entonces lucía claramente inconsistente con los instrumentos que la teoría económica aconsejan como correctivo para un proceso recesivo. Todo lo contrario, en lugar de hacer un uso expansivo de la política monetaria y fiscal, provocó un shock fiscal con una reforma tributaria que contrajo el gasto público y activó una lenta retirada del crédito bancario al sector privado, de efectos similares a una política monetaria contractiva. Argentina comienza además en 2000, a no poder colocar más Bonos en el mercado voluntario de Deuda. Ese crédito bancario que percibía el sector privado casi U$S 80.000 millones, que antes de la crisis Rusa crecía 18% anual, cayó en 30 meses a -2,5%, comenzando la retirada, muchos meses antes que la fuga de depósitos del 2001. A todo eso se le suma un 2001, donde se desata una guerra mediática, entre la "ultra ortodoxia" y Cavallo. Una campaña inocultable contra el Ministro, lo hamaca en un su tránsito impulsivo de la heterodoxia a la ortodoxia sin solución de continuidad. Se instala la duda sobre la gobernabilidad y recuperación de la economía, llevando el riesgo país a un fuerte deterioro progresivo. Sabemos que todo finalizó con la negación última del crédito de U$S 1.600 millones del FMI, que llevó a una estampida final de los depósitos. Cavallo intentó frenarla con el corralito y otros artilugios que fueron manifiestamente insuficientes. Todo esto desembocó en una crisis de gobierno, default y devaluación en dos actos, que "legalizaron" Rodríguez Saa y Duhalde, quienes completaron una sucesión de 5 Presidentes en unos pocos días. Del tiempo de Duhalde mucho se ha hablado recientemente, acerca de la pesificación asimétrica, la devaluación sin programa, etcétera.
Sin dudas, una mejor gestión de Duhalde pudo adelantar la recuperación, pero no debe caerse en visiones mágicas, ni sobrevaluar el rol de las políticas pasivas o de "piloto automático" con gasto descontrolado y endeudamiento irracional que implementaron Roque Fernández, Carlos Rodríguez y Pedro Pou, y que precedieron e iniciaron la catástrofe recesiva que encendió la mecha. El economista Jeffrey Sachs reconoció que el mismo pensaba, solo 6 meses atrás, que todo era culpa de los argentinos, pero junto al premio Nóbel Joseph Stiglitz y otros no menos destacados economistas comienzan a exhortar a los Organismos Multilaterales de Crédito y las posturas ultra ortodoxas de los economistas que asistieron a semejante desbarajuste. Ellos y otros comienzan a revisar las estrategias equivocadas que han contribuido a acelerar el proceso de destrucción de la economía Argentina.

El Cronista - La desintegración familiar

Tengo suficientes fundamentos para pensar que nos hallamos en el tramo final de una guerra extravagante. Debo admitir que he sido sorprendido por el grado de desconocimiento de los funcionarios, en cuanto a como se conduce la otra parte en discusión. Nos volvimos a consumir otra gesta torpemente, pensando que nuestro contrapuesto desentendía el modo de hostilizarnos.
San Pablo, consiente de la realidad de la guerra, aconsejó en una de sus cartas: "no ignoren los propósitos del adversario".
Venimos a enterarnos, que delante de nosotros teníamos un grupo de contendientes de propósitos uniformes para tratar "indisciplinados". Sus insistentes presiones ¿no se dirigían a ganar la pulseada que le planteó un país díscolo?
Sostengo que el gobierno reconoció recién ahora, que existían medios para desbaratar países y gobiernos que no asumen roles militantes en la globalización.
Si habíamos determinado resistir, hubiese sido de suma importancia conocer los códigos y prever las consecuencias de un enfrentamiento.
Lo supo la URSS manifiestamente.-¿Por qué razón finalizó de un plumazo una revolución de setenta años, sin disparar un solo tiro para defenderla? - China decidió abrir su economía e integrarse al comercio mundial porque no quiso derrochar energías.
Es una tragedia que millones de argentinos vivamos en la zozobra, siendo objeto de nuevos y más feroces ataques. Somos una sociedad que ya viene sufriendo hace cuatro años. Antes con el "sálvese quien pueda". Luego le agregamos pobreza, y ahora destrucción de las familias con sus´integrantes yéndose al exilio.
El primer tema, la mayor catástrofe que puede experimentar un país; la desunión. La caída de Argentina no es cuestión del último año, es un proceso que comenzó con la ceguera acaparadora de quienes han construido fortunas de dudosa procedencia, desde la nada. Allí es cuando se provocó el descenso de la Nación, y la decadencia de sus dirigentes. La estrategia más conocidas para enfrentar una Nación que se pone en pie de guerra, desde antiguo, es por medio del hambre. Si los habitantes de ese país están mal alimentados, se mantendrán desnutridos y como consecuencia debilitados. Ningún endeble estará en condiciones de pelear en forma efectiva. Argentina inició esa dirección apenas la abandonó el crédito internacional en Octubre del 2000. Este principio funciona en la guerra, y como vemos también en la beligerancia económica.
La tercera situación destructiva actual es, permitir que las familias argentinas se separen, y entonces, abandonando el segundo vínculo saludable de una sociedad. La desintegración es un hecho sumamente lamentable.

Investment, the investor and the long term financing

Neither lowering the public expenditure from 14% to 3% on GDP, nor privatizing quickly, nor opening a country, nor anything could assure the success in the long term. Even the more daring and ambitious investor who came with the pro-business economy, the press heroes of the Nineties know this reality.

Many investors bought very efficient Argentine companies that today are in creditors’ meeting or hard problems. Private Equity Fund burst in buying companies haphazardly. There were them of these famous ones, which they bought companies without debts, with interesting fixed assets that could be used like guarantees of later loans. Companies that, as a consequence of their performance, paid important sums of money from income tax, interesting contributors of the state treasury and the society. Simply changing the destiny of the tax (passing from income taxes to financial cost) they took loans whose financial cost base was assured. In the end credits bridge originated by the purchases were cancelled through financing by the own company. From 1998 with Russia’s default, the financing to buy companies was not only diminished abruptly, in addition to that the flow of genuine financing finished which support indebtedness structures and financing of any business activity. Finished leverage takeovers, international and corporate private equity funds begin to turn towards Brazil as well, where anticipating the devaluation they landed in swift way. Since most of the indebted companies could not face the financial cost which they were underwent and of course, first they didn’t pay the income tax and later they pay to the system bank with a lot of difficulties and expired conditions. It was several years issuing bonds yield of 14% per annum in dollars (junk bonds) to financing purchases, everything charged to the operation of successful companies. A leader food company, who earns 10% annual on sales, today is seriously complicated. Many balance sheet inflated by Intangible assets signed by the best direct or representative consultants involved in worldwide scandals. It’s interesting to observe that the commissions of most developed accountant schools in the world are not agreed in the application methodology to estimate a brand, despite in Argentina already was being used dared methodologies as standard. I could be extended it with sophistry that proliferated in the Nineties and which they were detected easily in the diagnoses. An example of it was the increased amounts or nonexistent of stocks when it was made an inventory. Clearly, the objective was to hide losses to continue asking for banking credit. It is an enormous speculation cycle that finalizes when the macroeconomics changes the course and gives up growing. If the countable make-up or creative accounting (allegorical reference) in many of these companies had been deduced, they would have a more negative equity than all banks of the financial system, after the asymmetric Pesos exchange. The difference is that in the case of the companies bought by a leverage buyout, found the problem early before the asymmetric pesos exchange, as soon as it was begun a economic activity deceleration in Argentina, between the second and third quarter in1998. There was a case of a famous supermarket whose banking debt had increased eight times only in the next year after its acquisition. - I ask myself: the Banks of the "Super System" that was constructed, with what financial risk did they lend? - The takers of junk bonds abroad, what recover expectation did they have? Who did advise them? Where is the international investment bank in this point? It is clear now that there are shared responsibilities between those who caused damages and the injured ones. Being fair, it is necessary to mention this was a business that allowed huge commissions to its promoters during the Nineties. There were syndicated credits, issues, loans bridges, a lot of operations and yield for its creators. Original founder with simple lucidity fled terrified from the companies that had sold, despising millionaire contracts to continue managing them, very soon beginning the new administration.

With purpose about replacing fired successful entrepreneurs, the best head hunters arrived in Buenos Aires trampling on with their offer. Always there was a search for an executive to replace a CEO that left to his company and to his position. The unpleasant thing was that they often ended up improvising executives with financial handling, whose capabilities and market knowledge didn’t agree with the awaited results. Despite everything was running while Argentina grew six or seven annual percents. The curtain was opened when Russia speeded its default up. The euphoria of the apparent initial success was followed by failure.

A set of reforms and financial instruments of short-term economic policy to stabilize the rate of exchange and the inflation (the convertibility plan), without a real and attractive investment plan in the long term, never was a sustainable scheme. When the economy or the businesses were concentrated in the short term and do not have long-term strategy, the results are those who are observing. The economy only participated in a game: short term. In the obstinate search to obtain instantaneous recognitions, it was established the short-term objectives that stimulated the myopia. This policy took to us living and succumbing only by the quarterly numbers of the INDEC (National Institute of Statistics and Census).

The inflexible search of the established assumptions for every quarter made forgetting everything what it didn’t have a connection with the intentions to reach determined goals. A feeling to travel in a submarine by ten years impeded to took advantage of creative opportunities and alternatives. Some economist couldn’t even think without receiving reproof and haughtiness. With opening barriers, privatizations and liberalization in high speed in a short term were to live existentialism or at least one bubble. The booty of exchange and monetary stability during the 90th - fed the future failure (it eliminated the national industry and most of the Argentine businessman).

The globalization caused the crisis in a way as great waves like in the beach when it is necessary to move quickly or the wave pass over the Nation and this remain to row against the current. Wave after wave immovable Mexico, Asia, Russia, Brazil, and Turkey. Whenever a quarter of air blew in the world, Argentina insisted on remaining static while the moving sand swallowed it. Dropping in prices of our commodities, revaluation of the dollar, devaluation in Brazil and us without reaction. During the Nineties many sources of works were destroyed, without forecast available, we soon remained without capitals while the country acquired a huge and important debt. In investments as well as businesses, it is necessary to participate in the both game simultaneously: in a short and long term. A long-term strategy is basic to ensure sustainable success and that is no longer is debatable. The type of country we want it, it will determine the economy that we will have. This desire must be embraced a high conviction support by those ones live in it in order to be sustainable in the time.