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sábado, 26 de octubre de 2002

Argentina, economic innovation is the sustainable plan

There is an only manner to exhibit viability for a banker, to demonstrate him that the debtor will have payment capacity in the future. The main objective of a banker’s forecast is to determine in the long term the consequences from the present plan action and then to provide alternatives to support a consistent and sustainable plan. It’s clear so that a long-term financial plan is subordinated to the integral plan of country’s transactions. In fact, this is the most frequent case of any corporation to get suitable financing. A strategy and an integral action plan. When the financial performance begins with conflict so many times, it ends up affecting economic situation as in companies. This has been happening in Argentina for years. Obviously, the priority of traditional approach should change. It is necessary to develop a commercial strategy that establishes a sustainable plan with a consistent structure of financing. It is not possible to be only applied constant poultice to an extremely weak patient. When the papers are reversed and for getting the financial agreement is more important than the long-term strategy, take place inevitably the defaults and they are the consequence of the own imprudence. It seems a contradiction, IMF requests to Argentina, which Argentina by itself would have to yearn for, a maintainable plan. Would it make sense to reach at unfulfilled agreements again? We have beaten all the record of breach with assistance from IMF. The focus has always been financial; in short or medium term it never was a sustainable plan. The businesses of a corporation and a country need to be maintainable in the long term. In the private sector it sounds interesting a financing agreement in consistent form with the yield rate of the project. The criteria to analyze a country agreement do not differ, except in its terminology. One analyzes growth rates of instead of yield, fiscal sector instead of cash flow and both cut rate of financing.

Finally, satisfaction of the bonds holder will depend on future growth rates of the issued country. It is difficult to determine forecast accurately, but without a doubt it is more interesting and maintainable to do it with a plan that adds a new factor of growth. This is only possible to get it with a marginal factor; a "boom of exports".

Change of Expectations: Good news. It shines essential to make high proposals allow re-positioning international expectations and they anticipate a reversion in economy cycles. Fundamentals, country risk index, stock exchange Index, the asset value models, etc.; they do not always agree with the reality. Sometimes they are exorbitantly high, other very paltry low. - What would it have to happen so that the indicators, which anticipate the things, abruptly change in Argentina? There is a high degree of correlation between expectations and their verification in future periods. As much in consumption as in other variables, these indicators have become important publications at the time of making decisions.

There are sufficient international and domestic threats to Argentina that justifies a creative challenge. With another "only orthodox" plan it reaffirms and increases unemployment and excess capacity, generating an unimaginable social conflict. The social conditioning is strong to extend the application of contractive measures as the most traditionalistic sectors propose. If the social situations become anarchy, some countries and corporations would not wish to make any treatment with Argentina. This can include "not to buy"

Today, the size of the Argentine companies does not present advantages to face anything in solitary way. We do not have volumes. It does not exist vocation neither preparation for exporting. This is incompatible with the high necessity to generate foreign currencies and employment. We have an enormous ignorance about exports markets.

During the last twenty-five years we have been private of budget support for fostering promotion. From the Financial Reformation of 1977 that eliminated the promotional credits for the manufacturing exports, getting new markets, sales of plants with vacant possession, etc.

We have seen frustrating experiences of exporting partnerships between national colleagues, due to the individualistic culture and the lack of capital in producers´ associations.

By virtue of the harmony that would have to reign in a local partnership between pairs, it would be necessary the partners were free of rivalries and disputes.

What will we say in conferences in a couple of years? – How will we be able to maintain the fact of not innovating, having reached bad results?

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