Ambito, Consecuencias de la Globalización y la ultra ortodoxia

Por Pablo Tigani*
Para: Ámbito Financiero- Comercio Exterior
Las consecuencias procedentes de la globalización de los mercados y las recetas ultra ortodoxas para resolver los desequilibrios macroeconómicos, están siendo expresamente cuestionadas.
Comenzando con los acuerdos comerciales hasta las políticas aconsejadas a los países en desarrollo, se han tomado decisiones en ejercicio de voluntades políticas con una evidente orientación filosófica.
La insistencia de los organismos multilaterales de crédito en prescribir procedimientos estándares que no resolvieron los problemas concretos que trataban, ayudó mucho para examinar cuales serían los riesgos de seguir en esa dirección.
Por muchos años no se ha podido realizar una discusión serena y generosa fuera del enfoque neo clásico. Por estos días anduvo Joseph Stiglitz, lamentablemente interesó poco para la televisión, no más de cinco minutos; ninguna universidad famosa o fundación de estudios económicos organizó un debate con su participación. - ¿Intransigencia intelectual o temor?
En los últimos años, los ejecutivos del FMI y los economistas nacionales excitados en sus recomendaciones, han postergado los problemas de la economía real, ajustándolos a la imposibilidad de proponer innovación alguna. Alguien dijo: ¡No se puede modificar la ley de gravedad! Como si la economía y la física fueran lo mismo. Esos comportamientos absolutistas, son consistentes con otras formas de gobierno y otros tiempos pasados. Abandonar las negociaciones con un país que no siga criterios intransigentes sin objeciones, será en adelante ir a contramano de un mundo que quiere mejorar la globalización.
Economistas contemporáneos: es ineludible inventar. Ingenuity y mucho para mejorar la calidad de vida de los habitantes de los países. Políticas económicas innovadoras y compasión, pueden mejorar mucho la perspectiva para encarar soluciones. Es necesario descubrir nuevas formas de crecer con distribución más equitativa.
En Argentina ya están expresándose las encuestas en términos de intención de voto. La gente joven; los estudiantes y profesionales nos preguntan acerca de las recetas aplicadas, puesto que son las que aprenden hoy mismo en algunas prestigiosas universidades:
-¿No es que privatizamos para ser más eficientes?
-¿Cómo vamos a negociar bajar calidad de servicios con respetables empresas de comunicaciones, en la era del “total quality service”?
-Fortalecimos al sistema financiero subiendo los requisitos de liquidez y capital, pero las tasas de interés nunca reflejaron beneficios para los tomadores.- ¿Fue bueno estimular el endeudamiento del sector privado?
¿No es que con entidades más sólidas desaparecían los bancos que recibían redescuentos extravagantes?
¿No construimos un sistema privado para administrar jubilaciones que no fueran saqueadas por los distintos gobiernos? - ¿y el mercado de capitales emergentes de esos fondos donde está?
Mientras claramente están dadas las condiciones para comenzar una discusión, tratemos de hacerlo con humildad, sin chicanas ni metiendo miedo.
Durante muchos años se sostuvo que los mercados funcionaban a la perfección y que los gobiernos no tenían que intervenir absolutamente en nada. Quienes así se manifestaron en Argentina, ejercieron su derecho; cultivando además, una especie de monopolio de la verdad económica. Ocuparon todos los cargos públicos y defendieron cualquier cosa que apoyara esa línea de pensamiento, inclusive presidentes como Menem y De la Rúa. Es más, algunos dijeron que el FMI fue filántropo con Argentina, disimulando la enorme ineficiencia que describe el hecho de prestar mal.
Es posible que los afectados por esas políticas en toda la geografía (plomeros y carpinteros del Norte y del Sur) y quienes les escuchan, tengan más que decir. Estemos atentos observando y oyendo.
Ningún economista sueña con volver a un estado intervencionista que componga todas las torpezas que operan las plazas financieras. Pero tampoco ya nadie tiene dudas que la globalización, los mercados y la ultra ortodoxia, no están dando respuesta a los problemas sociales que hoy enfrentan los países.
*Master en Política Económica Internacional – www.hacer.com.ar

Ambito, El estado jugará un rol más activo

Por: Pablo Tigani*
Para: Ámbito Financiero-Comercio Exterior
Unas semanas atrás en Chicago, mientras salía para una reunión, eché un vistazo en una estación de TV, y un famoso programa de noticias irrumpía con un hombre esposado. Más escándalos y rumores en la bolsa por fraudes en los balances, provocaron en los días sucesivos expresiones críticas y serios temores, que hicieron bajar el índice Dow Jones por debajo de los 8.000 puntos. Esta situación impulsó la mediación directa del estado, que además del “show off” de Bush, hizo intervencionismo de la manera más ingenua o irreverente, según se lo quiera ver.
Unos días antes, un excesivo escepticismo sobre Latinoamérica había agudizado los problemas propios que observa la región. Las decisiones de apoyo más tarde, contradecían las expresiones previas del Secretario O´Neill, con respecto a rescates de países Latinoamericanos en problemas. -¿Quien imagina los alcances que tendría ejercer más presión sobre el abreviado flujo de capitales hacia los países emergentes?
Estos contrasentidos no son nuevos, pero están exacerbados hace un año, por las exigencias internas propias del país guía. La incertidumbre permanece. -¿En que rumbo marchará el mundo y particularmente la región con el actual liderazgo internacional?
Durante la década del noventa apreciamos los beneficios de la globalización, con su maravillosa revolución de las comunicaciones y la expansión de las nuevas tecnologías de la información. Un impulso renovado del intercambio comercial entre naciones, tuvo su pico en el año 2000, donde el crecimiento del comercio mundial tocó 13% anual. Pero -¿cómo sigue ahora? – Ese crecimiento del comercio que promedió el 7/8% en algunos tramos de la década del noventa, cayó a solo 1% el año pasado. Las proyecciones actuales anticipan una desaceleración del crecimiento de Estados Unidos preocupante. Estados Unidos solo, explica el 40% del crecimiento mundial. Hablamos de un país en donde el crédito de consumo es la principal propensión del sector privado y las necesidades del sector público actúan como una fenomenal aspiradora de recursos internacionales.
El enfoque de las políticas de reformas estructurales (privatizaciones y down sizing del estado) fue acertado y exitoso porque había mucha tela para cortar luego de la caída del muro de Berlín. Pero realizado el ajuste en la mayoría de los países, se consolidó un status de crecimiento global con concentración. De este modo, se ha puesto sobre el tapete mucha ineficiencia, consecuencia incuestionable de las empíricas reglas establecidas.
¿De que otro modo, podía continuar la burbuja de los mercados o la exhuberancia irracional que denunció vaticinadamente Alan Greespan?
Los casos Enron, Xerox, Vivendi, Global Clossing, WorldCom, Andersen; son un mero aspecto de los excesos de la liberalización, una pálida muestra de lo que podemos llegar a ver, si el gobierno norteamericano deja de intervenir en auxilio del mayor velocípedo mundial que se tenga memoria.
Los países y sus economías necesitan control especulativo e intervención mínima básica para cumplir con su rol en la sociedad.
Si las necesidades de atraer capitales en el norte no cesan y/o, a la bicicleta planetaria se le sale la cadena, las posibilidades de una crisis por carencia de financiamiento, puede poner en riesgo la globalización y yo diría, hasta su mismo liderazgo. Esto sin contar los factores políticos militares y religiosos que nos tienen afligidos desde hace un año, en una guerra, por ahora fría.
A partir de los episodios del once de Setiembre comenzó a prosperar un consenso intelectual que quedó expresado claramente en las decisiones de los países adalides de la liberalización de las décadas anteriores. Estados Unidos reaccionó luego de los atentados, a pesar de que su economía venía derrapando dos trimestres antes. La decisión fue: subsidiar, aumentar el gasto y bajar la tasa de interés. En un año la FED bajó un 73% la tasa (de 6,5% a 1,75% anual), el Congreso autorizó aumentos del gasto público por más de 40 mil millones, y simultáneamente aprobó una fuerte reducción de impuestos. Recientemente el Reino Unido de Gran Bretaña, volvió a estatizar los ferrocarriles. En Argentina, Correo y Aeropuertos están renegociando contratos de concesión, mientras los servicios elementales y las comunicaciones siguen sin colapsar, aún percibiendo tarifas 72% más bajas en dólares.
Si bien los mercados y las reformas estructurales ocuparon un lugar trascendental en el primer tramo de la globalización; comienza a existir en nuestros países, convicción de que el Estado jugará un rol mucho más activo de aquí en adelante. En mi opinión es un hecho irreversible. La presentación o lanzamiento de esta nueva perspectiva; como podemos advertir, ya comenzó a ser ejecutada por las dos naciones academia, del pensamiento económico histórico.
* Master en Política Económica Internacional- www.hacer.com.ar

The reengineering of the country

"I have a dream"

Rvd. Dr Martin Luther King

(The dream of racial equality was difficult but it arrived and changed the history of the United States)

A Simple Proposal to leave the standard monotony

This is a no conventional but vital proposal, with a stable and reliable partner who removes us from the isolation. The conditions of a long-term agreement with the IMF estimate conditions that before they have already appeared as accurate handling our economy to incorrect results. From the beginning of the globalization and long before in the capitalist world in the pos war countries, there was important variability between the different economies from the same system. France, Italy, Germany and Japan made different things with each other, in different times and all as well, made distant things with respect to the United States and Great Britain. Nevertheless, all this countries are part of G7. Why must we do something uniforms and conventional according to IMF´s norms? - For example Malaysian said not, Korea said: this is correct, but this one isn’t acceptable. Perhaps Chile could wait, also Hong Kong and Singapore resisted in the middle of the Asian crisis, but Argentina needs something new. The orthodox plans imply the fulfillment of goals. We have seen that fifteen among nineteen opportunities they were not reached by Argentina.

Instead of fixing only fiscal and monetary orthodox objects with aura of serious, we establish a strategic audacious proposal. An orthodox economist will say, “ it is impossible to duplicate exports in a year! He is right; it is impossible to reach that with an orthodox plan. It is necessary to break the conventional scheme. No exponential change can be obtained with a habitual adjustment. I remember an occasion, when I was an executive and the sales had declined. Taking advantage of the fact that the government had pay old prevision debts through bonds, we arranged a selling operation of domestic appliances in exchange for bonds, against the opinion of all staff. The company was allied with an expert

Bank, both facilitated the beneficiaries’ cash and suppressed the troublesome proceeding of shareholding. Gary Friedman, a young lawyer who got tired of the verdicts in North America; guilty or innocent asked himself: Will it be other alternative than this traditional bureaucratic one? As a result of that search, against whichever legal eminence’s opposition existed, it began the practice of "mediation”, which separated from the scene nothing less than the judge who made the decisions. I am music professor and an active Christian. Many people think that in churches only formal musicians, dressed in black play, and the atmosphere in which they sing to God is solemn and classic as in the Westerns. They should see "Delirious" (English musical group) just to mention a group. There are hundreds of them that fill football fields with believers who had abandon their communion with God. Color attires, fashion haircuts and electronic devices congregate Christians.

Competition among economists to prove who was the most orthodox stimulated resignation and eliminated the ingenious way (ingenuity). We must try new strategies of economic policy and be involved in changing intellectual habits. Let us experience the way to solve new problems with creativity.

Now Japan Represents The Best Opportunity to join Argentina to The Main League. The Perfect Key is Identified In Japan.

Japan: It’s a model country, productive, exporting, great and credible with low interest rates for financing businesses. As we previously said, Argentina has always been a seductive country for Japan.

Argentina: a country with 40 percents of excess capacity, the 44 percent of its working population is unemployed and sub-occupied. Until 2001 its relation Exports/PBI was below ten percent. It was in the first place of Risk Country with long permanence in the podium. It had a massive flight of capitals in 2001. The diminution in placing product in traditional markets (the U.S.A. and Europe) makes even more attractive the incursion of new limits. Because opening, also means to be ready to export to new markets. We cannot continue being a country closed to the commerce from the side of its exports and to remain concentrated in the traditional options. A “Pro Businesses of Export” atmosphere introduces all type of initiatives. In a company and a country, the only problem with no solution is when their products or services are not sold. When facing so many budget restrictions to export as tax promotions (lines of pre-financing credit, financing and post financing), attendance to fairs; even businessmen who examine exports possibilities render and do what "they can". That is to say, it’s exported what it’s demanded. In a more hostile world, as was already described, perspectives expose higher unemployment rates in the future. It is obvious that in those circumstances the world will turn more competitive. In order to face all type of restrictions to obtain scale, we will require experts in industrialization and exports.

Radical Reengineering for Argentine Economy’s Businesses.

Pure Innovation.

We needed a change in conceptual vision. If we run this proposal in Argentina, we finally began to play in two leagues simultaneously. The Combat League in a short term and the Match League of Long Term. This burst of a productive economy of exports, is not other thing that recognition and correction of our derivations. The irruption of a commercial- productive focus changes the way to do businesses and therefore the form to plan the life of Argentine citizens. We passed from twenty-five years depositing money for thirty days to strategic plans and productive development. We had first “the mother country contractor”, but later the “bank contractor”. Before the privatizations, the industrialists were suspected because they made businesses with the state. After the privatizations and the financial opening the banks lived doing businesses lending money to the state.

A Cultural Reengineering

Why must we finish the “exclusively financial focus” in Argentina?

(Paraphrasing Bill Clinton in his electoral campaign) It is the clumsy culture!

The financial focus is an approach that has much to do with the Anglo-American culture and by the way it is useful to them. This perspective applied to businesses allows admitting the free circulation of capital, without of uncontrolled or excessive volatileness risks. This form to operate is related and requires what I could call a " conscience of own thing " as a country and individual citizens. For these cultures transcendental thing is the foundation. From their origins, they are countries with societies founded on Biblical principles emanated from "the Reformation", in time they made flexible, but always present in the popular thought. Respect by the private ownership in their communities, personal and familiar dependency of the own effort and the aid of God. The degree of necessary controls in a society with those original bases, is noticeably inferior to ones from a society that has lived without foundations by many years, in a permanent instability situation (historical reference: - from few years of independence, we already lived the anarchy) "every man for him self" could be written in the knavery manuals of the leadership in general. From the evaded one of his social layer, to the exaggerated conscientious public employee with three last names of his ancestry, although so foolish and rogue as the first one. Clearly, these are not economic problems but it influences and take effect on the economy’s operations in a categorical and decisive way.

Living on foundations, is intimately bound to the reformist ethics, where people believe in the system because in consistent form, they are mainly confident and with a higher level of commitment than the average of the countries whose foundation is less solid. It’s for that reason this citizen are more confidant and his legal system works. An previous electoral survey in the United States showed that the ninety and nine percents of the voters would not vote by a non-believer President or without an explicit religious commitment. Is it truth that nobody imagines in Argentina a capable President to request pardon publicly? I could mention even the humiliating examples of a North American President, giving to details of his affair before the television cameras to the whole country. Later, a population that after listening to him, forgave him and increased his popularity in vertiginous way. For many reasons that situation is not possible to live it here in Argentina today. I would like to imagine to a civil employee apologizes, but it does not happen. The ex- minister of the Convertibility, affirmed in the United States that he would never more accept to be Minister of Economy, wont he? In addition, "he does not have anything for regretting". An ex-

President and present possible candidate says: "my government was a most successful". The founding President of “cacerolazo” (hit the pot) or the phrase "all of you go away" said soon after his final leaving by helicopter: "a plot decided to finish my government". In addition another candidate for President, pretends that he was not Minister of the ex-

President De La Rúa during two thirds of its mandate. Three ladies with strong mass media image, two recognized Representative plus an ex- Minister and at this time all of them are candidates, that made campaign pre-electoral with De La Rúa, they never mentioned their political responsibility. A private university that it had recognized authorities and professors as Minister of Economy, Vice Minister, President of the Central Bank (BCRA), as thus also other civil employees in the economic and financial area, they do not assume responsibilities. The President of this university declared in a non-impartial mass media that all the misfortunes of Argentina are in the Congress and the politicians for those he and his training center were dedicated. It seems that in Argentina, nobody is mistaken nor regrets his errors. And much less one is prepared to apologize. Then on this way, the executives or bureaucrats of those societies of reformist origin do not consider reasonable to help. Remember that for its conformation, God and the personal effort are the one in charge to help, each one makes his part. Although it is a universal law and non-reformist, a principle to request aid is the following: first it is necessary to lament the errors, to assume them and then to request tolerance. Our politicians and economists, when they were in power, did not do it and they haven’t still done it. Those, who allowed the practice to take money cash and to spend it over the possibilities, and left the disadvantage to the next, they have not perturbed at least. This is long questionable. But by other side, moneylenders and bond investors, ambitious to yield crude and unrealizable profit, must become a reconsideration: Who are really their friends in Argentina?

Gold medal and standards recipes

Gold Medal and Standards Recipes

Gold Medals

An empty and declining civilization idolizes the apparent refinement education that some universities offer to. They adore supposed eminences; they say the numbers and the data that in appearance are solid and conclusive. In debatable and old-fashioned concepts, the capacity of an individual link together strongly to the ability of memorize and applying the stored information. In the university the highest qualifications were to people who had highest memory, or who were strongest concentrated in a single activity. In that evaluation scheme the Main Colin Powell could not qualify for Bush’s government and even Irving Wallace mustn’t have written so many books so extraordinarily meticulous. Additionally we can speak about Bill Gates who did not complete his studies. In the world, the conceptually old economists, usually comment that such-and-such person was gold medal by his qualifications, as if that assigned him more probabilities of been success in a position or their theoretical arguments could give them passion by the economy of their country and their people. On the other hand it would seem that the numbers never lie, nor distort the reality. It is always spoken of who has the best numbers in such-and-such country and really there are them good and very rigorous. But many people are convinced and transmit those ideas and even they make believe to the people that its life depends unconditionally on fundamentals. If the economy figures and the economists with better marks graduated at best universities, are the success indicators. How could the Argentine case be explained without looking for a scapegoat? Something that we have learned is that nobody knows enough to take a right guess of the GDP growth with a ten percents of variation margin in the next year. I don’t want to play the formation, student abilities and the high educational houses down. I myself, have a higher degree, all we have necessity of those knowledge. If a professional doesn’t know instruments, if he has not made exercises and works, she couldn’t participate in the connection of any idea and that must be deduced.

Argentina, Its Experience when applying Standard Formulas

If the Argentineans wish to offer a sustainable plan, it is sure that we can’t settle down from the same scheme that was experienced because of results reached. IMF’s Agreement as the nineteen signed from 1958, produced fifteen breach of contract, four of them without at least taking place the decided payments. But what is worse, from the last years of ex- President Alfonsin with the "Spring Plan " seven agreements were signed and it was only possible to be fulfilled one.

Since then we have already requested eighteen consecutive waivers the to the IMF´s board.

Since the sudden end of Proviso government in 1976, the stabilization plans generated a debt by 143 billions dollars. Nearly (globalize versions) from the Tequila we have had 20 trimesters with negative variation of the GDP (two third parts of the last seven years) - Which would be the reason to continue insisting? The alternative is a "boom of exports" in an innovating and creative scheme.

Ambito, "Hello!, Duhalde es peronista"

Para Ámbito Financiero-Comercio Exterior
Por Pablo Tigani*

"El capitalismo internacional es frió e inhumano; el capital de la industria y del comercio representa, a nuestro sentir, la herramienta de trabajo de nuestros hombres de empresa". (6-9-1944)
"Hemos comprado los ferrocarriles y los teléfonos; estamos comprando las usinas y expropiando los servicios públicos, y seguiremos en esa tarea"(9-6-1947)
"Desde hoy en adelante hemos de industrializar al país para que nuestro trabajo lo realicen obreros argentinos..."(30-6-1947)
"La primera acción del gobierno para reconquistar su independencia económica fue nacionalizar el B.C.R.A. Sería Como decir que nosotros hemos nacionalizado el gobierno nacional"(26-7-1947)
"¿Qué era el B.C.R.A.?- Un organismo al servicio absoluto de los intereses de la banca particular e internacional... decidía la política monetaria, con total indiferencia respecto de la política económica que la Nación debía desarrollar"(26-7-1949)*Expresiones y fragmentos recogidos del libro DOCTRINA PERONISTA del Presidente J.D.Perón -CS EDICIONES-Feb/1996-impresiones Sudamérica
Durante la presente gestión, cayeron 40% las importaciones, generando 1.500MM de dólares de superávit comercial mensual. El Sistema Financiero ha dejado atrás 25 años de historia, desde la RF Junio de 1977 (Ley 21.526)-Se reformó la Carta Orgánica del B.C.R.A., un acontecimiento político de una magnitud fenomenal. Posteriormente, dejó la presidencia del Central, un ex funcionario del FMI y asumió la conducción un político peronista. Ya van seis meses de tarifas congeladas de empresas de servicios privatizadas en la década del 90. En el mismo lapso, la pesificación asimétrica multiplicó por 4 los pasivos de las empresas extranjeras que se fondean en el exterior, disminuyendo a la vez 30% sus activos a cobrar. Para las deudoras locales se licuaron sus pasivos en dólares, con la transitoria Ley de Quiebras en un contexto de pesificación.
Como consecuencia de lo expuesto, no sería para nada insólito que las compañías de servicios públicos privatizados, le restituyan las llaves al estado; las extranjeras consideren marcharse del país y los bancos, luego de recibir redescuentos millonarios, ingresen en un proceso de nacionalización derivado.
Seguidamente, la devaluación que es consistente con una política de sustitución de importaciones y promoción de exportaciones, podría generar cambios de titularidad de empresas en manos extranjeras o de private equity funds, a sus antiguos dueños.
Repasemos entonces las supuestas improvisaciones emergenciales e indoctas de Duhalde:
El B.C.R.A. se subordinó explícitamente a la política económica del gobierno. Tácitamente se estaría dando un proceso de nacionalización de la banca y también de los servicios públicos.
Producto de la devaluación; está en marcha un cambio de escenario en el comercio y la producción, vía sustitución de importaciones y empresas extranjeras.
Elaborémonos tres preguntas: - ¿Estarán acertados los economistas que explican como Duhalde no sabe nada de Economía y hace todo mal? - ¿Es correcto hacer análisis económico de una administración extraordinariamente peronista desde el abreviado razonamiento clásico?-¿No será que los economistas neo mediáticos, no saben nada de historia y de política?
Duhalde sin balcón y sin carisma, en solo seis meses, reanudó diversos y previsibles desenlaces ideológicos peronistas. La magnitud de sus decisiones económicas, ha convertido el aplauso del Congreso, en una simple apostilla baladí.
*Master en Política Económica Internacional- Presidente de www.hacer.com.ar

Conferencia en FOEMA, 28/06/2002

La teoría económica no deja en ciertas cuestiones margen para la discusión, aunque en otro orden de cosas, comienza a generar un debate mundial.
Una economía que sufre la sucesión de shocks externos e internos como la nuestra, tiene menos del uno por ciento de probabilidades asociadas de ocurrencia en términos de repetición, en los próximos cien años. Durante la convertibilidad Argentina carecía de instrumentos de política cambiaria, monetaria y fiscal como para amortiguar los golpes sucesivos que afectaron la dinámica de la demanda agregada. En una economía cuyos precios no eran plenamente flexibles, el fenómeno de deflación con recesión, nos acompañó por cuarenta y dos meses, hasta la salida del Presidente De la Rúa.
Examinemos cuales fueron las causas exteriores e intrínsecas que afectaron negativamente a la economía.
Los fenomenales shocks a la cuenta de capital producto de las crisis de Asia, Rusia y Brasil provocaron una contracción de los flujos netos a los países emergentes, de U$S 220 mil millones a solo U$S 83 mil millones en tres años. Esto implicó que se duplicara la prima de riesgo y consecuentemente el costo del financiamiento doméstico. No fueron menos importantes los shocks anticompetitivos a la cuenta corriente, producto del deterioro de los términos de intercambio, explicado por la caída de los precios de nuestros commodities en el mismo periodo de 32%; la crisis recesiva pre devaluatoria y pos devaluatoria de Brasil que colapsó la demanda y contrajo las exportaciones argentinas, que hasta ese momento significaban el 28% del total. Podemos mencionar por último, la apreciación del dólar que desde Abril del 95 acumuló 40%.
En lo que respecta a los shocks domésticos y en medio de semejante contexto, Machinea intenta reactivar la economía, apelando a un ajuste fiscal inconexo con las promesas electorales que llevaron a la Alianza al poder. Para recomponer credibilidad y bajar el riesgo país, el Ministro intentó realizar un ensayo que ya entonces lucía claramente inconsistente con los instrumentos que la teoría económica aconsejan como correctivo para un proceso recesivo. Todo lo contrario, en lugar de hacer un uso expansivo de la política monetaria y fiscal, provocó un shock fiscal con una reforma tributaria que contrajo el gasto público y activó una lenta retirada del crédito bancario al sector privado, de efectos similares a una política monetaria contractiva. Argentina comienza además en 2000, a no poder colocar más Bonos en el mercado voluntario de Deuda. Ese crédito bancario que percibía el sector privado casi U$S 80.000 millones, que antes de la crisis Rusa crecía 18% anual, cayó en 30 meses a -2,5%, comenzando la retirada, muchos meses antes que la fuga de depósitos del 2001. A todo eso se le suma un 2001, donde se desata una guerra mediática, entre la "ultra ortodoxia" y Cavallo. Una campaña inocultable contra el Ministro, lo hamaca en un su tránsito impulsivo de la heterodoxia a la ortodoxia sin solución de continuidad. Se instala la duda sobre la gobernabilidad y recuperación de la economía, llevando el riesgo país a un fuerte deterioro progresivo. Sabemos que todo finalizó con la negación última del crédito de U$S 1.600 millones del FMI, que llevó a una estampida final de los depósitos. Cavallo intentó frenarla con el corralito y otros artilugios que fueron manifiestamente insuficientes. Todo esto desembocó en una crisis de gobierno, default y devaluación en dos actos, que "legalizaron" Rodríguez Saa y Duhalde, quienes completaron una sucesión de 5 Presidentes en unos pocos días. Del tiempo de Duhalde mucho se ha hablado recientemente, acerca de la pesificación asimétrica, la devaluación sin programa, etcétera.
Sin dudas, una mejor gestión de Duhalde pudo adelantar la recuperación, pero no debe caerse en visiones mágicas, ni sobrevaluar el rol de las políticas pasivas o de "piloto automático" con gasto descontrolado y endeudamiento irracional que implementaron Roque Fernández, Carlos Rodríguez y Pedro Pou, y que precedieron e iniciaron la catástrofe recesiva que encendió la mecha. El economista Jeffrey Sachs reconoció que el mismo pensaba, solo 6 meses atrás, que todo era culpa de los argentinos, pero junto al premio Nóbel Joseph Stiglitz y otros no menos destacados economistas comienzan a exhortar a los Organismos Multilaterales de Crédito y las posturas ultra ortodoxas de los economistas que asistieron a semejante desbarajuste. Ellos y otros comienzan a revisar las estrategias equivocadas que han contribuido a acelerar el proceso de destrucción de la economía Argentina.

El Cronista - La desintegración familiar

Tengo suficientes fundamentos para pensar que nos hallamos en el tramo final de una guerra extravagante. Debo admitir que he sido sorprendido por el grado de desconocimiento de los funcionarios, en cuanto a como se conduce la otra parte en discusión. Nos volvimos a consumir otra gesta torpemente, pensando que nuestro contrapuesto desentendía el modo de hostilizarnos.
San Pablo, consiente de la realidad de la guerra, aconsejó en una de sus cartas: "no ignoren los propósitos del adversario".
Venimos a enterarnos, que delante de nosotros teníamos un grupo de contendientes de propósitos uniformes para tratar "indisciplinados". Sus insistentes presiones ¿no se dirigían a ganar la pulseada que le planteó un país díscolo?
Sostengo que el gobierno reconoció recién ahora, que existían medios para desbaratar países y gobiernos que no asumen roles militantes en la globalización.
Si habíamos determinado resistir, hubiese sido de suma importancia conocer los códigos y prever las consecuencias de un enfrentamiento.
Lo supo la URSS manifiestamente.-¿Por qué razón finalizó de un plumazo una revolución de setenta años, sin disparar un solo tiro para defenderla? - China decidió abrir su economía e integrarse al comercio mundial porque no quiso derrochar energías.
Es una tragedia que millones de argentinos vivamos en la zozobra, siendo objeto de nuevos y más feroces ataques. Somos una sociedad que ya viene sufriendo hace cuatro años. Antes con el "sálvese quien pueda". Luego le agregamos pobreza, y ahora destrucción de las familias con sus´integrantes yéndose al exilio.
El primer tema, la mayor catástrofe que puede experimentar un país; la desunión. La caída de Argentina no es cuestión del último año, es un proceso que comenzó con la ceguera acaparadora de quienes han construido fortunas de dudosa procedencia, desde la nada. Allí es cuando se provocó el descenso de la Nación, y la decadencia de sus dirigentes. La estrategia más conocidas para enfrentar una Nación que se pone en pie de guerra, desde antiguo, es por medio del hambre. Si los habitantes de ese país están mal alimentados, se mantendrán desnutridos y como consecuencia debilitados. Ningún endeble estará en condiciones de pelear en forma efectiva. Argentina inició esa dirección apenas la abandonó el crédito internacional en Octubre del 2000. Este principio funciona en la guerra, y como vemos también en la beligerancia económica.
La tercera situación destructiva actual es, permitir que las familias argentinas se separen, y entonces, abandonando el segundo vínculo saludable de una sociedad. La desintegración es un hecho sumamente lamentable.

Investment, the investor and the long term financing

Neither lowering the public expenditure from 14% to 3% on GDP, nor privatizing quickly, nor opening a country, nor anything could assure the success in the long term. Even the more daring and ambitious investor who came with the pro-business economy, the press heroes of the Nineties know this reality.

Many investors bought very efficient Argentine companies that today are in creditors’ meeting or hard problems. Private Equity Fund burst in buying companies haphazardly. There were them of these famous ones, which they bought companies without debts, with interesting fixed assets that could be used like guarantees of later loans. Companies that, as a consequence of their performance, paid important sums of money from income tax, interesting contributors of the state treasury and the society. Simply changing the destiny of the tax (passing from income taxes to financial cost) they took loans whose financial cost base was assured. In the end credits bridge originated by the purchases were cancelled through financing by the own company. From 1998 with Russia’s default, the financing to buy companies was not only diminished abruptly, in addition to that the flow of genuine financing finished which support indebtedness structures and financing of any business activity. Finished leverage takeovers, international and corporate private equity funds begin to turn towards Brazil as well, where anticipating the devaluation they landed in swift way. Since most of the indebted companies could not face the financial cost which they were underwent and of course, first they didn’t pay the income tax and later they pay to the system bank with a lot of difficulties and expired conditions. It was several years issuing bonds yield of 14% per annum in dollars (junk bonds) to financing purchases, everything charged to the operation of successful companies. A leader food company, who earns 10% annual on sales, today is seriously complicated. Many balance sheet inflated by Intangible assets signed by the best direct or representative consultants involved in worldwide scandals. It’s interesting to observe that the commissions of most developed accountant schools in the world are not agreed in the application methodology to estimate a brand, despite in Argentina already was being used dared methodologies as standard. I could be extended it with sophistry that proliferated in the Nineties and which they were detected easily in the diagnoses. An example of it was the increased amounts or nonexistent of stocks when it was made an inventory. Clearly, the objective was to hide losses to continue asking for banking credit. It is an enormous speculation cycle that finalizes when the macroeconomics changes the course and gives up growing. If the countable make-up or creative accounting (allegorical reference) in many of these companies had been deduced, they would have a more negative equity than all banks of the financial system, after the asymmetric Pesos exchange. The difference is that in the case of the companies bought by a leverage buyout, found the problem early before the asymmetric pesos exchange, as soon as it was begun a economic activity deceleration in Argentina, between the second and third quarter in1998. There was a case of a famous supermarket whose banking debt had increased eight times only in the next year after its acquisition. - I ask myself: the Banks of the "Super System" that was constructed, with what financial risk did they lend? - The takers of junk bonds abroad, what recover expectation did they have? Who did advise them? Where is the international investment bank in this point? It is clear now that there are shared responsibilities between those who caused damages and the injured ones. Being fair, it is necessary to mention this was a business that allowed huge commissions to its promoters during the Nineties. There were syndicated credits, issues, loans bridges, a lot of operations and yield for its creators. Original founder with simple lucidity fled terrified from the companies that had sold, despising millionaire contracts to continue managing them, very soon beginning the new administration.

With purpose about replacing fired successful entrepreneurs, the best head hunters arrived in Buenos Aires trampling on with their offer. Always there was a search for an executive to replace a CEO that left to his company and to his position. The unpleasant thing was that they often ended up improvising executives with financial handling, whose capabilities and market knowledge didn’t agree with the awaited results. Despite everything was running while Argentina grew six or seven annual percents. The curtain was opened when Russia speeded its default up. The euphoria of the apparent initial success was followed by failure.

A set of reforms and financial instruments of short-term economic policy to stabilize the rate of exchange and the inflation (the convertibility plan), without a real and attractive investment plan in the long term, never was a sustainable scheme. When the economy or the businesses were concentrated in the short term and do not have long-term strategy, the results are those who are observing. The economy only participated in a game: short term. In the obstinate search to obtain instantaneous recognitions, it was established the short-term objectives that stimulated the myopia. This policy took to us living and succumbing only by the quarterly numbers of the INDEC (National Institute of Statistics and Census).

The inflexible search of the established assumptions for every quarter made forgetting everything what it didn’t have a connection with the intentions to reach determined goals. A feeling to travel in a submarine by ten years impeded to took advantage of creative opportunities and alternatives. Some economist couldn’t even think without receiving reproof and haughtiness. With opening barriers, privatizations and liberalization in high speed in a short term were to live existentialism or at least one bubble. The booty of exchange and monetary stability during the 90th - fed the future failure (it eliminated the national industry and most of the Argentine businessman).

The globalization caused the crisis in a way as great waves like in the beach when it is necessary to move quickly or the wave pass over the Nation and this remain to row against the current. Wave after wave immovable Mexico, Asia, Russia, Brazil, and Turkey. Whenever a quarter of air blew in the world, Argentina insisted on remaining static while the moving sand swallowed it. Dropping in prices of our commodities, revaluation of the dollar, devaluation in Brazil and us without reaction. During the Nineties many sources of works were destroyed, without forecast available, we soon remained without capitals while the country acquired a huge and important debt. In investments as well as businesses, it is necessary to participate in the both game simultaneously: in a short and long term. A long-term strategy is basic to ensure sustainable success and that is no longer is debatable. The type of country we want it, it will determine the economy that we will have. This desire must be embraced a high conviction support by those ones live in it in order to be sustainable in the time.

Ambito, Fondo de comercialización de exportaciones

Por: Pablo Tigani*
Por estos días se ha reflotado una vieja idea: canje de deuda externa por territorio o por riquezas naturales, sin embrago, puedo asegurar que el camino para la solución definitiva es otro. Y más, una solución que además nos permitiría incrementar exponencialmente nuestras exportaciones.
En mi labor cotidiana, compruebo invariablemente que una alianza estratégica, es la fórmula para potenciar la actividad de una corporación debilitada. Hasta las organizaciones más frágiles cobran impulso con sinergia. Un acuerdo con un socio exitoso es la clave para revertir en forma expeditiva una carencia. En una compañía con problemas, el good will puede superar el valor patrimonial. Aún concursadas, las empresas que poseen capacidad de generar flujos de fondos son atractivas. Esta circunstancia llega cuando la empresa objeto no tiene financiación y no puede encarar un incremento en sus ventas para revertir su situación.
La idea fuerza, consiste en procurar un acuerdo bilateral con Japón, otorgándole en locación un "fondo de comercialización de exportaciones argentinas".
Japón carece de recursos naturales, extensión territorial y sobrelleva una década de estancamiento. Esta alianza representa para ellos la posibilidad de aplicar, industrialización y exportación de agro alimentos. Una nueva familia de productos primarios y derivados que diversificará su portafolio, compensando su excesivo enfoque en electrónica e informática, hoy altamente saturadas.
Abriremos juntos, un horizonte innovador con la originalidad de elaborar y exportar sus productos desde otras latitudes a sus mercados tradicionales. Japón posee fábricas en todas partes del mundo, accionar la llave que tiene en el Sudeste Asiático, donde en sólo 18 años se acumulará el 50% del PBI mundial es más que interesante. Imagínese: "Alimentos argentinos de fabricación japonesa". Un slogan que detonará un cambio de imagen internacional. Una conjunción de calidad y creatividad, es la clave para un programa económico sustentable.
Incorporar a nuestra estrategia un país experto y rico, inversiones, tecnología, know how y, financiación de exportaciones, será estupendo. Próximamente, los planes sustentables para países con alto endeudamiento, deberán incluir alianzas estratégicas para exportar, como elemento estrenado por Argentina. Un complemento eficaz del invariable requisito de equilibrio fiscal.
La propuesta
*Acordemos con Japón preferencia arancelaria y beneficios para inversiones directas, a los fines de industrializar y exportar bienes y servicios desde Argentina.
*Retribuyamos con un "management fee" el aumento de los 26.000 millones de dólares actuales de exportaciones. Sólo con extender su know how, Japón diversificará su oferta de exportación, a los propios mercados que ya satisface.
*A cambio, recibamos de Japón un aval de hasta 11.750 millones de dólares para emitir bonos que garanticen la renegociación de la deuda (Fase II)-Avalando el 25% de aproximadamente 47.000 millones de dólares con bonos
*Ese nuevo bono "ARGENJAPAN AAA", servirá para rescatar los títulos anteriores con una quita del 50 por ciento.
*Argentina le garantiza a Japón la amortización puntual de los bonos, con el superávit excedente.
De esta forma aseguramos una renegociación exitosa, elevando considerablemente la indudable amortización de capital e intereses y reduciendo rápidamente el riesgo país.
Incorporaremos además a nuestra cultura, una mentalidad productiva exportadora, abordada junto a un líder. Esto significará también el fin de la historia del endeudamiento extravagante. Un cambio irreversible para un país que necesita obtener divisas, producción y empleo, para evocar el crecimiento económico y social.
*Pablo Tigani-Master en Política Económica Internacional-Presidente de www.hacer.com.ar

Mercosur, Argentina, IMF, Liberalization, Help!

Everybody agrees and says to agree with free markets and private companies. But that is what they say. If we look what is happening in most of the countries in the world, in a lot of them anyway the state is growing, not decreasing.

Report spread by Cato Institute at the meeting of the Economic Freedom of the World Net, at the en of 2001, in San Francisco, Milton Fridman (Economy Nobel Prize)

“Only when we develop others, we are constantly success”

Harvey S. Firestone.

It is a truth that the citizens of our countries (Mercosur) suffer from "fatigue of the adjustment". A constant recommendation is on the front page of newspapers when the IMF visits to us: "it is necessary to lower the expenses". This causes feelings "opposed to the IMF" in Argentina Brazil, Uruguay and Paraguay.

The Nineties were accompanied by remarkable progresses related to the orders and aspirations of international economic organisms. Commercial barriers were eliminated; it was reduced import quota and customs tariffs, etc.

As a consequence Mercosur began to appear as an interesting zone by the United States, the European Union and Asian countries as well. Ours shopping and supermarkets, before nonexistent, even though 50% on the imports in Argentina, they are supplied of many products of different parts from the world. All these years we have acceded to such products as an Italian or a German citizen with a third of their GDP per capita (a ratio before devaluation). Nevertheless we opened our barriers to the commerce in naive way, but also we made an effort releasing financial rules innocently, allowing the entrance of many and strong financial organizations and international insurance and reinsurance agencies.

It is interesting to observe that while our countries did that, the developed countries was established more protectionism. The United States is an example when it levied tariffs on the steel while at the same time Europe strongly increased the agricultural subsidies, making complicated our possibilities of getting markets for our exporting product.

Mr. Bush imposed a “dumping” tax on steel. It’s completely absurd. And that is done in name of free trade.

Report spread by Cato Institute at the meeting of the Economic Freedom of the World Net at the end of 2001, in San Francisco, Milton Fridman (Economy Nobel Prize).

At that time we lifted commercial barriers, we sold state assets, and we opened to the financial system and the capital market as nobody made it in a short time. The argument explanation that says we didn’t adopt with enough rigors the Washington Consensus, it doesn’t hit the target.

Privatizations. Capitals globalization, its influence on Argentina. The fiscal deficit. Convertibility evolution:

Privatization of Services

Sectors considered strategic in any country as energy, telecommunications and mining were completely opened to the foreign investment. This position obviously turned to Argentina a phenomenal attraction. It is good matter to transfer monopolies from public sector to reputable private companies, when in term of price vs. efficiency the user and the country do well out of that. In Argentina the idea of not promoting the competitiveness in the sector was bad. The fares in dollars neither contributed to improve the life of the inhabitants nor the costs of the companies.

The telephone companies that were quasi-monopoly by many years, they propose to renegotiate the rise of fares and diminishing quality services. Does it happen in the total satisfaction of the client era? - We taught to the businessmen a dissatisfied client although he doesn’t complaint, he does not come back. Despite in this case a client is more or less assured and therefore he couldn’t leave. This is a true cruelty. For a company of services, quality always means being centered around client’s necessities. Many of them have the obsession to know the client opinion. The client today is served quickly and with courtesy, thus we instructed. The services are the passion to please and to know the client, and they are the assets of companies. We inclusively know it is uneconomic not producing quality from the beginning. All these years we have received gurus from different parts of the world that taught us to understand that the service is a process could be improved.

Brainstorming, workshops, etc. Occasionally the rational thought of an economist is what to do work to service companies.

Even though in the last instance when the company’s decisions on fares are prospered, the process would have to be guidance by negotiating and marketing creativity. I say that, always trying to find solutions and never breaking spear or backing down the quality.

A service company has characteristics of "emotional company". Where are the famous commercials? What happens? – We could not be indifferent after a twelve years training of implanted philosophy. This logical though is stronger than economic trends of the country. What are the economists saying when they threaten with collapses?

Capitals, banks and unconditional liberation with fiscal deficit

We have seen that the capitals are extremely volatile and Argentina pressed by its low saving rates speculated betting continuity, without consistent final results according to the made efforts. It is necessary to reconsider the period and the way in which all international economic relationship have been managed during the last twelve years. The policies followed by suggestion of the multilateral organisms of credit in this period finished suddenly, although non-unexpected. It was made evident that we are a very vulnerable country in an unconditional liberalization context. During the year 2001 capitals fled from Argentina in a "click" of computer mouse. These transferences generated the most frightful crisis that could register from the beginning of the globalization.

This phenomenon that has occurred before then it’s calling "flight to the quality” does not register an antecedent of high speed and damage up-to-date as the Argentine case. In 1997 the deficit of the current account already came showing an increasing tendency.

This deficit as a consequence of the imbalance in the public accounts and in the middle of the Argentine bubble, the economic and political authorities did not observe the minimum vocation to reduce it. The official economic team, apparently orthodox, only made declamations while they remained in their positions. Is it Political obedient or condominium in the silly things? While the economy was growing, a majority of public economists and their private followers saw to another side. Although the recited speech to reduce the public expenditure added points for its present defense, the empirical evidence discredits to them.

Insufficient exports

In contexts as after it was described (while the capitals flow) is where the mediocrity of the exporting performance is hidden. During 1997 the growth of our exports in the first trimester already registered an 18% fall and a 5.5% fall in the second, but the variable it seemed relative. The reason was the mentioned ignorance and the illusion that existed because of the net income level of the capital account.

During second semester of 1997 as far as it was commented in the first semester (in which we grew 8.2%), a favorable cycle was been set up with external context and green light to deepen the way chosen.

It’s important to indicate that we lived that experience during the best year of worldwide economic growth before the crisis of Southeast Asiatic, and taking the previous ten years as a base. In the next years we could see how the dollar was increase the value by 40% (currency which the Pesos were fixed). Nevertheless as we lived a strong growth of worldwide exports and an explosion of direct foreign investment with abundant international liquidity, the forecast was limited.

The Asian and Russian crisis was published with discretion and artifice, meanwhile our commodities’ price suffered a 30% fall.

At the same time it was supported the reevaluation of the exchange rate for Real, currency of our main commercial partner (Brazil) until inexorably the devaluation arrived.

This was widely denied as prognosis by the economists satisfied with the "automatic pilot", in terms of predicting 90% of people with TV exposure made mistakes in respect of after events. Despite the economic conduction, it extended and persisted an indemnity attitude, without trying a minimum intention of "organizing something”, even though the annual speed of quarterly activity fall was dramatic.

It begins a recession cycle - orthodoxy and heterodoxy of central bank of Argentina

Financial system: strong and weak - the catastrophe arrives:

From growing quarterly between 8% and 10%, we became to fall 10% (in reverse gear to 100 km per hour, when we were advancing to 180 km in fifth speed). Later we didn’t need more external misfortunes to fail. Argentineans went into political campaign and we began to add four years of political conflict because of the power in the majority party.

The opposition won and peculiarly the economic policy was reinforced.

With new President of the Nation (Fernando De la Rúa) we went through the worst economic and social period of crudest inefficiency of contemporary history.

A “luxury” cabinet of ministers integrates by four economists praised by the financial press, the corporative bankers and international businessman.

A President of the BCRA pampered by the financial system and all management consultant, was the fifth player. Three of them were dismissed and one resigned, in a period of eight or nine months before the debacle. With the succession of silly things of all that team, the denouement arrived from a systematic crisis (financial) aggravated by the vulnerability, which we exposed ourselves. We had faced the challenge to turn to the vertiginous liberalization and the political and social stability into compatible one, in a country with less than two decades of democracy. The liquidity reached and the boasted solvency and exerting the inflexible reforms of 1994 with the intention of fortifying the bank, could not be still valid the financial system. Even with a generous aid, although inconsistent with the conducted philosophy of the Central Bank, neither the international banks escaped from the confusion. It is evident that the civil servant of that administration, as well as the previous ones, did not intellectually identify with any interventionist or leading measure.

Despite the granting of discountable amount and the attempt to salvage the banks, they became in that direction. Rigidity exposed by the Central Bank (BCRA) through the application of norms of the International Adjustments Bank of Basel (Circular 2180) in 1994 where it equated little and middle companies (PyMEs) with large corporations was not worthwhile. The submission of production and work to fortify the financial system were an insufficient attraction for savers remained in the system.

If empirically and not ideologically the conceived system had been so solid, it never would have depended on a civil servant’s permanence in an easy chair of the Central Bank.

The emergent cocktail in a tight spot

It isn’t good idea neither cutting oneself a leg nor causing bulimia to lose weight. In a turbulent social context the IMF proposals are at least utopian expressing it diplomatically. Turning down the overhead and to increase the taxes by De La Rua Government (with the four economists in the Minister cabinet and without modifications in the BCRA´s board), was the irreversible beginning of a direction towards the abyss in the first months of its steps. Affecting public employees reducing wages to improve fiscal surplus in a quarter percentage point before imminent default, was the delirium of a Minister under pressure from his own customer as well. Cavallo gave the last slaps of the drowned, without own control, in resignation and abandoned by his promoters.

Finally, the last day of that long period of the dominant arrangement, it got dark in the Buenos Aires city in the middle of a chaos, with a result of 28 people died and one hundred of people wounded.

Let us remember that from Juan Vital Sourrouille (Minister of Economy of President Alfonsin), Argentina signed 15 agreements with the IMF and it did not fulfill any of them completely. Today for our great surprise, with that antecedent we continued receiving complicated and unfulfilled requirement. At the same time our present civil servants are being accused because of they don’t subscribe what it would obviously be impossible to maintain. If the Minister Lavagna could agree again, as others used to do it, - Will he not be accused in couple of months of impostor as Cavallo? - The asymmetric return to “Pesos” is worth a chapter aside. This situation generated a legal insecurity unprecedented, where all contracts were violated; and it was given rise to a regulation very volatile later exceptional. By many months nobody believed in anything what people said. A proliferation of public bonds growing without pause and they went adding to the national debt and still the relation of debt vs GDP increased detrimentally. – Were there other plans to stop the massacre of people, “cacerolazo” (a demonstration hitting a pan) permanent every Fridays and to attenuate the strikes and demonstration? It is arrogant to think triviality from outside and reducing the outbreak magnitude. Already in October of 2002, in Argentina, 35% of the national companies with higher debts than 3 million pesos were in problems. (Source: Analysis of Credit Risk Management - BCRA). The risk of technical insolvency or the loans of “difficult recovery" grew 40% in 10 months. The credits of correct fulfillment fell 50% in the same period. Those who pay as they can through special adjustments are four times more than ones at the end of 2001. A confidential report provided by one of the most important rating agencies in the world, registered default in 55% of the O.N. of analyzed national companies. As a complement, a 38% additional of the O.N. shows a negative perspective, although they don’t register breaches up to date. That’s to say 92% is in default or with perspective of that. In addition, the Banks that concentrated the financial business and lent money from our people to our State, still estimating bonds to 50% have a negative Equity by 8 billion dollars. In order to compensate the banks and the deposits exchange, Finance Ministry emitted Dollar bonds which they was received by the banks, plus bonds that was received by the savers, that totalize a bond issue (soon of default) by 15,6 billion dollars and 4,3 billion Pesos.

The deposits have increased but the credit continues falling and the situation is precarious. It was proved the weak scheme in the medium term when the IMF lowered the thumb to Cavallo in August 2001. Right there where the facts speeded up in strong violence. The technical default publicly and formally revealed in the Congress, already it had been caused when Horst Köller and Ann Kruegger did not answered the Cavallo´s phone calls. From here everything was questioned, from the good relations with the international organisms to the legal regime of foreign investments that eliminated all restrictions in respect of capitals arrival.

Great Opportunity, IMF-ARGENTINA, reestructuring debt

Great Opportunity, IMF-ARGENTINA, restructuring debt

"There isn’t security on this earth, only opportunity",

Anonymous.

			)

In general, there is a valuable opportunity to make innovating changes when everything crumbles. How long does Argentina not generate its own ideas? - It asked Charles Sabel, professor of Columbia Law School. He and others American intellectuals consider that even in extreme weakness conditions, the indebted countries aren’t obliged accepting suggestions of the IMF. The idea to face another type of negotiation with the IMF become more and more strength, considering the endless number of armoring agreements, trade-off and big trade-off tried during the lasts years in Argentina, without reaching the objectives.

Richard Freeman of Harvard and Aruind Panagariya of Maryland also question and reconsider the meaning of the negotiating packages and conditions of IMF. In those academic scopes, debates are arising and they are still taking place in the IMF itself under strict privacy, as a result of the last crisis that took place in Argentina. If thus it weren’t truth, we would have to take with extreme carefulness that Haussmann thinks about its present people who direct the organization. (In his opinion, the IMF is handled by a group of incompetent (said by him in September of 2002 at the University Torcuato Di Tella-Bs.As.Argentina).

Some economy technicians already propose to restate mechanisms and condition applied to the countries with problems so far.

If the expected results were reach, these or other new mechanisms could become a platform for learning and they would replace the dock place and the ostracism which it submits the countries that incur financial difficulties.

Why couldn’t we Repeat Mistakes Without Terminal Risks?

One of the current problems of Argentina is that lost the international trust and consequently its capacity to attract capitals that were functional in the convertibility scheme. In order to surpass definitively the present Argentine crisis it needs to restructure its public debt. In this sense, the decision to present a innovative commercial proposal, instead of insufficient and habitual financial renegotiations, it will clearly be to take a step to the front.

Any agreement that doesn’t have support, from the point of view of which is future generation of currency flows will find difficulties to materialize it. It is not possible to convince the markets and international financial community that we will be able to generate resources, with a bit or high primary surplus. We needed a surplus that allows the state to serve the new interests from a new nominal debt. Just by the sixty percent of the GDP which we had in 2001 (in dollars) it would be ingenuous and insolent to repeat a fiscal effort proposal that will turn to us a "normal country".

This phrase that is repeated as if the Argentineans were alienated, is offensive and boring since it comes with "no proposal". An expenditure adjustment in the magnitude demanded by the orthodox economists that was surpassed by ex- Minister Cavallo with the rule of deficit zero, it was impossible to carry out and generated a level of social voltage of great dimensions. All we know how the government of the ex- President F. De La Rua ended, even though at the beginning he received an unprecedented aid from the Congress that granted “supreme powers”. He had first the favor from the all-political parties and against later, (even worst he wasn’t accompanied by allied party) the unions and the own colleagues as well. However the country said to him "not to the permanent fiscal adjustment by expenses side", before Cavallo, it was said to Lopez Murphy.

In just a short time Cavallo forgot that its designation took place as a result of an enormous social resistance to the proposal of his predecessor. In the epilogue Cavallo fell and it was the end of a government who only two years before had won by overwhelming majority.

The opposition and the own mass of voters, made totter the democratic system. The risks on the attempt were dangerous, highly dangerous and displeased. It is interesting to note that some economists still propose more of the same and in respect of the public debt, they want to reconstruct it assigning between (4/5 points of the GDP-fiscal surplus), with no new proposing. To try balancing the budget in that way would demand a change of political system with a previous social resistance that could give rise to a national chaos, with its consequent investment exodus, worse than one we come registering. Therefore, it is necessary to raise a proposal to wake up the confidence in the country. Something new.

Innovating talent and associative opportunities will attract the support of the creditors, the multilateral organisms of credit and the investments.

A Clear and practical Example

In these months, in spite of default of the Argentina debt, a group of local companies achieved to obtain financing in the middle of the hurricane. Those companies are dedicated to export and more accurate in agricultural food exports. This gives us a pattern of the interest from who decide to finance activities and what is their greater attractiveness. The most outstanding case is Aceitera Deheza (Oil Company) with headquarters in Cordoba Province, (it has a low profile like most of this type of national companies with great invoicing), dedicated to export oil and sunflower and soybean pellets. It almost commercializes the 90 percent of his production abroad. At only five months of the default This Company obtained a credit of 60 million dollars for pre-financing of exports from CFI - International Financial Corporation. The security to receive the line was the same pre-financing exports. Even though the worst moment in the relation with the IMF, it prevented that World Bank advanced in this type of financing since they were persuaded that the agricultural and food sector in Argentina has a huge potential.