jueves, 21 de febrero de 2019

ARGENTINE. WHERE IS THE PILOT?




CENTRAL BANK placed $ 183,875 million in Leliq (bonds) to 7 days (more than $ 4,500 million) validated an increase in interest rate - the highest of the last 5 rounds (+ 300bp): 49%. It dropped -1.8% on the stock exchange, while talking about bizarre dollar quotes. Exports fell 4.7%, January 2019 / January 2018 (falling down -47% in chemical products). Industry, commerce and construction collapsed. The crisis preventive orders were doubled. The basic basket rose 3.7% January vs. December. The expected inflation for February is around 3.5%.

AND YOU THAT PROPOSES TIGANI?

An act of grandeur to the entire cabinet, or "dismissal with cause." Clearly the trust was lost
Return the BCRA to its owners
Dismiss the Minister Secretary of the IMF (Mr. Dujovne)
Unify the Ministry of Economy and designate new minister.
Apply a comprehensive growth plan, with "creativity"
Gesture of honesty: request the suspension of pending IMF disbursements
Restructure debt with the IMF to 120 months, from 36, with 24 months of grace. Payments from lowest to highest.
Debt restructuring with private banks. Same terms, Treasury rate + 100 bp.

WHAT IF THEY SAY NO?

Most likely we will see the first default (ordered or derailed in slow motion) to the IMF, public and private creditors. After that, tasted or not it will be make because is the only thing possible in this social situation

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