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viernes, 24 de octubre de 2003

Ámbito Financiero 24/10/2003-Subsidios agrícolas

La coalición de 21 países creada por Brasil, se opuso firmemente a los subsidios agrícolas europeos y estadounidenses. La liga formada es amplia e involucra nada menos que a China e India, dos países con muchos habitantes y tasas de evolución y operaciones, más que significativas. Otros estados pobres, pero de África, aunque se perjudican como los mencionados, no comparten la postura guiada por el propio líder de las reivindicaciones. Las naciones insumisas en Cancún no ganaron más que insistencia, ya que la discusión no reportó resultados concretos y todas ellas siguen sin lograr las ventajas comerciales que tanto anhelaban.
En la otra parte, las dos Uniones se sulfuran e indignan, ya que no están acostumbradas a ser presionadas de ese modo por países agrícolas periféricos. Mientras tanto, las negociaciones comerciales se mantienen moribundas.
La OMC no concentra el mandato del G7, que se presenta unido en los organismos multilaterales de crédito. Los casi ciento cincuenta miembros de la OMC tienen poder de veto, y como vimos, ninguno está de acuerdo en términos de intereses y reclamaciones.
Los bancos e inversores internacionales acreedores, compraron bonos de muchos de estos países pobres, devengando ganancias engañosas a la hora de percibirlas. Una trampa amenaza con generar situaciones de default por asfixia, si esto continúa sin resolverse.
Los países emergentes que contrajeron deudas en divisas extranjeras, ya que no pueden acceder a nuevos mercados, deprecian la moneda local para mejorar la competitividad de sus exportaciones y así vender más volumen en sus plazas tradicionales. Simultáneamente la deuda les estalla en default, como consecuencia de que se les multiplicó el monto de las amortizaciones de capital e intereses en forma consistente con la devaluación operada. Por supuesto, antes de que todo esto se precipite, los capitales más sagaces que saben anticipar las crisis, han huido para evitar la catástrofe que se avecina.
Luego de 25 años de escuchar la perorata anti subsidio para sectores de baja productividad en Argentina, los países ricos están empleando cada año, el equivalente a dos veces la deuda externa, para beneficiar a sus agricultores.
En este momento donde, en forma concurrente, nuestra industria textil está resurgiendo desde las cenizas y el sistema financiero sigue con patrimonio neto negativo; los países ricos nos ofrecieron en Cancún, liberalizar el negocio textil, a cambio de recibir concesiones para sus servicios financieros.
Claramente en el mundo, las Mega Instituciones representativas están en crisis; en todas ellas sobresale la incoherencia, podemos verificarlo en cada episodio internacional. Una crisis de creatividad y coordinación macroeconómica de magnitud, ha invadido la conducta de las supra organizaciones.
En síntesis, nos encontramos ante un corralito global, donde se bloquean los accesos de los mercados de bienes a los países deudores, mientras se diluyen los activos de los inversores y bancos desatentos.
En medio de esta oscuridad, raya el alba en dos jugadores internacionales muy importantes. Estados Unidos y el establishment industrial de Tokio, se pronunciaron en forma separada pero coincidente, diciendo que en el futuro, unos no se martirizarán más, participando de esos grandes foros comerciales (USA), y otros anuncian directamente encarar la vía de los acuerdos bilaterales (JAPON). Parece ser éste, el espacio para la salida más viable. Concretamente para la Argentina, quien debe encarar en forma consistente con la estrategia de multipolaridad, un plan táctico de acuerdos bilaterales que dinamice nuestro comercio. Esto nos permitirá pasar, de la sátira de los grandes foros, a la materialización específica de vender bienes y servicios.

miércoles, 1 de octubre de 2003

Ambito, versión inglés, Dubai September 22nd

Argentine government obtained in Japan on July 21st, after the exposure of many payment offers of the public debt in default, that Japanese creditors compromise to constitute a committee of bondholders to go forward with the negotiation started. The thought was to join ideas so the agreement should be more nimble, and if unified representations could organize as in Japan, in every district, there could be possibilities to arrive at Dubai with a good preliminary plan.
Creditors and bond market react with certain annoyance to restructuring proposal presented by the economic team in Dubai on September 22nd. Although majority of bondholders didn’t like official proposal, I think it was useful at least to start with the negotiation process. Even though in my previous meetings in Washington with board members of Multilateral Credit Organisms and investors, I could notice that nobody expected to be seduced by the argentine proposal, and bondholders didn’t expect something so radical either. Therefore, we could expect an offensive reply and we should prepare alternative proposals.
The universe of creditors is very wide in New York, Europe and Japan. Among these are the Japanese bondholders, whom I’ll treat hereafter to make a very interesting contribution. We are performing in our Headquarter, together with another Japanese consulting bureau of Chicago, a piece of work to appeal Nippon corporations in the solution of their bondholders’ problem. If all goes well, our meetings in Tokyo and Osaka will start in following days of October.
Consistently with actual economic policy faced by President Kirchner, Argentina has an exceptional opportunity generated by the Economic Ministry with formation of jurisdictional groups. This excellent tactic gives us the opportunity to rescue the debt of Samurai bonds and other promissory notes, and to impel our exportations. I’m proposing the constitution of a commercial and financial accumulative strategy, through a mixed alliance Argentina-Japan, completely new and original. This is the design of a new profile of commercial slant and not exclusively financial as it has been till now. This strategy will present an extreme oscillation of business of the Nation. For first time, we’ll present to the world a project that involves our concise export trade, with a rich, expert and absolutely complementary country, that will empower it as never before. This will be the “leading case”, for there are other feasible creditor groups in Italy, rest of Europe and U.S.A.

PROPOSAL (brief synthesis)

This proposal consists in negotiate the formation of a Distress Debt-Fund, of approximately US$2.800 millions, to rescue all the bonds and promissory notes with funds or guaranties of Japanese Corporations, granting in change in location, a “store fund of new argentine exportations”.*
Modality: A “distress fund” will be created, with investors (Japanese enterprises) who will rescue with their contributions the total of US$2.800 millions of debt, in possession of Japanese citizens, at 100% of their value. In change, against interchange of these bonds, Argentina negotiates and grants to the enterprises an annual fiscal quota, to be recovered within a term of 30 years. Will also grant to facilitate the installation, a preferential treatment for direct abroad investments, destined to new export productive activities. In this respect a customs facility procedure will be issued, for capital goods importation, destined for development and later exportation of products “Made in Argentina”.
Solving problems of Japanese savers with this transaction, Nippon corporations start a process of simultaneous investments in our country without stopping investment in Japan, to constitute definitively a strategic international alliance without precedent.
Argentina rescues the first eligible bonds, giving stillness to the first creditor group, in change of exportable production and Argentine employment. At the time, guarantees Japanese enterprises the completion of the deal, subordinating it, if desired, to the supervision of multilateral credit organisms.
A solid solution for a partner absolutely complementary and without ideological conflicts. We reduce debt; we bring down interest charge and consequently bring down the fear of extemporary fiscal insolvency in the future. We brandish this substitution of debt through the “Distress Debt” as an ignition key to exponentially empower our international trade and we can continue copying it with the European groups formed by Nielsen. The first answer to convert creditor enmities into partners. For our society, to increase volume of exportation writing off debt at the same time, will mean all an epic in cultural terms of growth and prosperity. Consistently, an agreement with same characteristics could be copied with Italian enterprises ** and of other countries holders of eligible bonds.
* See book ARGENJAPAN’S, Dunken print-house, 3rd edition, (2002), author: Pablo Tigani. Also in sites: www.hacer.com.ar and www.lebonfante.com
** I.e. Italian consumer demands fresh products all the year round and knows that because of globalization can consume fruit and vegetables, even though out of season in Italy. Some of Argentine fruit that attract them are: pears, apples, cherries, tangerine, tropical fruits, asparagus and pumpkins. Some of these foodstuffs also can be manufactured as juice, jams, and marmalades before exporting.