martes, 23 de abril de 2002
Por estos días se ha reflotado una vieja idea: canje de deuda externa por territorio o por riquezas naturales, sin embrago, puedo asegurar que el camino para la solución definitiva es otro. Y más, una solución que además nos permitiría incrementar exponencialmente nuestras exportaciones.
En mi labor cotidiana, compruebo invariablemente que una alianza estratégica, es la fórmula para potenciar la actividad de una corporación debilitada. Hasta las organizaciones más frágiles cobran impulso con sinergia. Un acuerdo con un socio exitoso es la clave para revertir en forma expeditiva una carencia. En una compañía con problemas, el good will puede superar el valor patrimonial. Aún concursadas, las empresas que poseen capacidad de generar flujos de fondos son atractivas. Esta circunstancia llega cuando la empresa objeto no tiene financiación y no puede encarar un incremento en sus ventas para revertir su situación.
La idea fuerza, consiste en procurar un acuerdo bilateral con Japón, otorgándole en locación un "fondo de comercialización de exportaciones argentinas".
Japón carece de recursos naturales, extensión territorial y sobrelleva una década de estancamiento. Esta alianza representa para ellos la posibilidad de aplicar, industrialización y exportación de agro alimentos. Una nueva familia de productos primarios y derivados que diversificará su portafolio, compensando su excesivo enfoque en electrónica e informática, hoy altamente saturadas.
Abriremos juntos, un horizonte innovador con la originalidad de elaborar y exportar sus productos desde otras latitudes a sus mercados tradicionales. Japón posee fábricas en todas partes del mundo, accionar la llave que tiene en el Sudeste Asiático, donde en sólo 18 años se acumulará el 50% del PBI mundial es más que interesante. Imagínese: "Alimentos argentinos de fabricación japonesa". Un slogan que detonará un cambio de imagen internacional. Una conjunción de calidad y creatividad, es la clave para un programa económico sustentable.
Incorporar a nuestra estrategia un país experto y rico, inversiones, tecnología, know how y, financiación de exportaciones, será estupendo. Próximamente, los planes sustentables para países con alto endeudamiento, deberán incluir alianzas estratégicas para exportar, como elemento estrenado por Argentina. Un complemento eficaz del invariable requisito de equilibrio fiscal.
*Acordemos con Japón preferencia arancelaria y beneficios para inversiones directas, a los fines de industrializar y exportar bienes y servicios desde Argentina.
*Retribuyamos con un "management fee" el aumento de los 26.000 millones de dólares actuales de exportaciones. Sólo con extender su know how, Japón diversificará su oferta de exportación, a los propios mercados que ya satisface.
*A cambio, recibamos de Japón un aval de hasta 11.750 millones de dólares para emitir bonos que garanticen la renegociación de la deuda (Fase II)-Avalando el 25% de aproximadamente 47.000 millones de dólares con bonos
*Ese nuevo bono "ARGENJAPAN AAA", servirá para rescatar los títulos anteriores con una quita del 50 por ciento.
*Argentina le garantiza a Japón la amortización puntual de los bonos, con el superávit excedente.
De esta forma aseguramos una renegociación exitosa, elevando considerablemente la indudable amortización de capital e intereses y reduciendo rápidamente el riesgo país.
Incorporaremos además a nuestra cultura, una mentalidad productiva exportadora, abordada junto a un líder. Esto significará también el fin de la historia del endeudamiento extravagante. Un cambio irreversible para un país que necesita obtener divisas, producción y empleo, para evocar el crecimiento económico y social.
*Pablo Tigani-Master en Política Económica Internacional-Presidente de www.hacer.com.ar
viernes, 19 de abril de 2002
Everybody agrees and says to agree with free markets and private companies. But that is what they say. If we look what is happening in most of the countries in the world, in a lot of them anyway the state is growing, not decreasing.
Report spread by Cato Institute at the meeting of the Economic Freedom of the World Net, at the en of 2001, in
“Only when we develop others, we are constantly success”
Harvey S. Firestone.
It is a truth that the citizens of our countries (Mercosur) suffer from "fatigue of the adjustment". A constant recommendation is on the front page of newspapers when the IMF visits to us: "it is necessary to lower the expenses". This causes feelings "opposed to the IMF" in Argentina Brazil,
The Nineties were accompanied by remarkable progresses related to the orders and aspirations of international economic organisms. Commercial barriers were eliminated; it was reduced import quota and customs tariffs, etc.
As a consequence Mercosur began to appear as an interesting zone by the
It is interesting to observe that while our countries did that, the developed countries was established more protectionism. The
Mr. Bush imposed a “dumping” tax on steel. It’s completely absurd. And that is done in name of free trade.
Report spread by Cato Institute at the meeting of the Economic Freedom of the World Net at the end of 2001, in
At that time we lifted commercial barriers, we sold state assets, and we opened to the financial system and the capital market as nobody made it in a short time. The argument explanation that says we didn’t adopt with enough rigors the Washington Consensus, it doesn’t hit the target.
Privatizations. Capitals globalization, its influence on
Privatization of Services
Sectors considered strategic in any country as energy, telecommunications and mining were completely opened to the foreign investment. This position obviously turned to
The telephone companies that were quasi-monopoly by many years, they propose to renegotiate the rise of fares and diminishing quality services. Does it happen in the total satisfaction of the client era? - We taught to the businessmen a dissatisfied client although he doesn’t complaint, he does not come back. Despite in this case a client is more or less assured and therefore he couldn’t leave. This is a true cruelty. For a company of services, quality always means being centered around client’s necessities. Many of them have the obsession to know the client opinion. The client today is served quickly and with courtesy, thus we instructed. The services are the passion to please and to know the client, and they are the assets of companies. We inclusively know it is uneconomic not producing quality from the beginning. All these years we have received gurus from different parts of the world that taught us to understand that the service is a process could be improved.
Brainstorming, workshops, etc. Occasionally the rational thought of an economist is what to do work to service companies.
Even though in the last instance when the company’s decisions on fares are prospered, the process would have to be guidance by negotiating and marketing creativity. I say that, always trying to find solutions and never breaking spear or backing down the quality.
A service company has characteristics of "emotional company". Where are the famous commercials? What happens? – We could not be indifferent after a twelve years training of implanted philosophy. This logical though is stronger than economic trends of the country. What are the economists saying when they threaten with collapses?
Capitals, banks and unconditional liberation with fiscal deficit
We have seen that the capitals are extremely volatile and
This phenomenon that has occurred before then it’s calling "flight to the quality” does not register an antecedent of high speed and damage up-to-date as the Argentine case. In 1997 the deficit of the current account already came showing an increasing tendency.
This deficit as a consequence of the imbalance in the public accounts and in the middle of the Argentine bubble, the economic and political authorities did not observe the minimum vocation to reduce it. The official economic team, apparently orthodox, only made declamations while they remained in their positions. Is it Political obedient or condominium in the silly things? While the economy was growing, a majority of public economists and their private followers saw to another side. Although the recited speech to reduce the public expenditure added points for its present defense, the empirical evidence discredits to them.
In contexts as after it was described (while the capitals flow) is where the mediocrity of the exporting performance is hidden. During 1997 the growth of our exports in the first trimester already registered an 18% fall and a 5.5% fall in the second, but the variable it seemed relative. The reason was the mentioned ignorance and the illusion that existed because of the net income level of the capital account.
During second semester of 1997 as far as it was commented in the first semester (in which we grew 8.2%), a favorable cycle was been set up with external context and green light to deepen the way chosen.
It’s important to indicate that we lived that experience during the best year of worldwide economic growth before the crisis of Southeast Asiatic, and taking the previous ten years as a base. In the next years we could see how the dollar was increase the value by 40% (currency which the Pesos were fixed). Nevertheless as we lived a strong growth of worldwide exports and an explosion of direct foreign investment with abundant international liquidity, the forecast was limited.
The Asian and Russian crisis was published with discretion and artifice, meanwhile our commodities’ price suffered a 30% fall.
At the same time it was supported the reevaluation of the exchange rate for Real, currency of our main commercial partner (Brazil) until inexorably the devaluation arrived.
This was widely denied as prognosis by the economists satisfied with the "automatic pilot", in terms of predicting 90% of people with TV exposure made mistakes in respect of after events. Despite the economic conduction, it extended and persisted an indemnity attitude, without trying a minimum intention of "organizing something”, even though the annual speed of quarterly activity fall was dramatic.
It begins a recession cycle - orthodoxy and heterodoxy of central bank of
Financial system: strong and weak - the catastrophe arrives:
From growing quarterly between 8% and 10%, we became to fall 10% (in reverse gear to 100 km per hour, when we were advancing to 180 km in fifth speed). Later we didn’t need more external misfortunes to fail. Argentineans went into political campaign and we began to add four years of political conflict because of the power in the majority party.
The opposition won and peculiarly the economic policy was reinforced.
With new President of the Nation (Fernando De la Rúa) we went through the worst economic and social period of crudest inefficiency of contemporary history.
A “luxury” cabinet of ministers integrates by four economists praised by the financial press, the corporative bankers and international businessman.
A President of the BCRA pampered by the financial system and all management consultant, was the fifth player. Three of them were dismissed and one resigned, in a period of eight or nine months before the debacle. With the succession of silly things of all that team, the denouement arrived from a systematic crisis (financial) aggravated by the vulnerability, which we exposed ourselves. We had faced the challenge to turn to the vertiginous liberalization and the political and social stability into compatible one, in a country with less than two decades of democracy. The liquidity reached and the boasted solvency and exerting the inflexible reforms of 1994 with the intention of fortifying the bank, could not be still valid the financial system. Even with a generous aid, although inconsistent with the conducted philosophy of the Central Bank, neither the international banks escaped from the confusion. It is evident that the civil servant of that administration, as well as the previous ones, did not intellectually identify with any interventionist or leading measure.
Despite the granting of discountable amount and the attempt to salvage the banks, they became in that direction. Rigidity exposed by the Central Bank (BCRA) through the application of norms of the International Adjustments Bank of
If empirically and not ideologically the conceived system had been so solid, it never would have depended on a civil servant’s permanence in an easy chair of the Central Bank.
The emergent cocktail in a tight spot
It isn’t good idea neither cutting oneself a leg nor causing bulimia to lose weight. In a turbulent social context the IMF proposals are at least utopian expressing it diplomatically. Turning down the overhead and to increase the taxes by De La Rua Government (with the four economists in the Minister cabinet and without modifications in the BCRA´s board), was the irreversible beginning of a direction towards the abyss in the first months of its steps. Affecting public employees reducing wages to improve fiscal surplus in a quarter percentage point before imminent default, was the delirium of a Minister under pressure from his own customer as well. Cavallo gave the last slaps of the drowned, without own control, in resignation and abandoned by his promoters.
Finally, the last day of that long period of the dominant arrangement, it got dark in the
Let us remember that from Juan Vital Sourrouille (Minister of Economy of President Alfonsin),
The deposits have increased but the credit continues falling and the situation is precarious. It was proved the weak scheme in the medium term when the IMF lowered the thumb to Cavallo in August 2001. Right there where the facts speeded up in strong violence. The technical default publicly and formally revealed in the Congress, already it had been caused when Horst Köller and Ann Kruegger did not answered the Cavallo´s phone calls. From here everything was questioned, from the good relations with the international organisms to the legal regime of foreign investments that eliminated all restrictions in respect of capitals arrival.
martes, 16 de abril de 2002
"There isn’t security on this earth, only opportunity",
In general, there is a valuable opportunity to make innovating changes when everything crumbles. How long does
Richard Freeman of Harvard and Aruind Panagariya of
Some economy technicians already propose to restate mechanisms and condition applied to the countries with problems so far.
If the expected results were reach, these or other new mechanisms could become a platform for learning and they would replace the dock place and the ostracism which it submits the countries that incur financial difficulties.
Why couldn’t we Repeat Mistakes Without Terminal Risks?
One of the current problems of
Any agreement that doesn’t have support, from the point of view of which is future generation of currency flows will find difficulties to materialize it. It is not possible to convince the markets and international financial community that we will be able to generate resources, with a bit or high primary surplus. We needed a surplus that allows the state to serve the new interests from a new nominal debt. Just by the sixty percent of the GDP which we had in 2001 (in dollars) it would be ingenuous and insolent to repeat a fiscal effort proposal that will turn to us a "normal country".
This phrase that is repeated as if the Argentineans were alienated, is offensive and boring since it comes with "no proposal". An expenditure adjustment in the magnitude demanded by the orthodox economists that was surpassed by ex- Minister Cavallo with the rule of deficit zero, it was impossible to carry out and generated a level of social voltage of great dimensions. All we know how the government of the ex- President F. De La Rua ended, even though at the beginning he received an unprecedented aid from the Congress that granted “supreme powers”. He had first the favor from the all-political parties and against later, (even worst he wasn’t accompanied by allied party) the unions and the own colleagues as well. However the country said to him "not to the permanent fiscal adjustment by expenses side", before Cavallo, it was said to Lopez Murphy.
In just a short time Cavallo forgot that its designation took place as a result of an enormous social resistance to the proposal of his predecessor. In the epilogue Cavallo fell and it was the end of a government who only two years before had won by overwhelming majority.
The opposition and the own mass of voters, made totter the democratic system. The risks on the attempt were dangerous, highly dangerous and displeased. It is interesting to note that some economists still propose more of the same and in respect of the public debt, they want to reconstruct it assigning between (4/5 points of the GDP-fiscal surplus), with no new proposing. To try balancing the budget in that way would demand a change of political system with a previous social resistance that could give rise to a national chaos, with its consequent investment exodus, worse than one we come registering. Therefore, it is necessary to raise a proposal to wake up the confidence in the country. Something new.
Innovating talent and associative opportunities will attract the support of the creditors, the multilateral organisms of credit and the investments.
A Clear and practical Example
In these months, in spite of default of the