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viernes, 27 de diciembre de 2002

Ambito, Los aportes de la exportación

Por:*
Para: Ámbito
Las Exportaciones:
Los aportes que podrían realizar las exportaciones a las economías de países endeudados como Argentina, paradójicamente son tan indiscutidos, como ignorados en su desarrollo aleatorio. No solamente en Argentina tenemos estos problemas inadmisibles. La mayoría de los ministros latinoamericanos que se desempeñan en el sector público son técnicos formados en universidades de países que no dependen de las exportaciones para equilibrar el saldo de la cuenta corriente de sus balances de pagos. Analizar las exportaciones con enfoque exclusivamente monetario ha sido francamente contraproducente a la luz de los resultados. Retirar el apoyo a la nueva actividad exportadora recortando tasas de interés y reembolsos para estimular la gestión empresaria afectó de una manera mayor el déficit fiscal, lejos de haber aportado mejoras sustanciales a la administración del gasto público. Aplicar impedimentos promocionales a la exportación en Argentina ha sido un deporte de la tecnocracia de turno. Esto demuestra claramente que el BCRA no puede ni debe ser tan independiente como para decidir en contra de la economía en su conjunto. Desde la reforma financiera de 1977, se eliminaron los beneficios que otorgaban las circulares promocionales de crédito. En aquel momento era uno por ciento anual en dólares para la prefinanciación y entre seis y ocho por ciento anual en dólares para la financiación. La pos financiación se realizaba a tasa corriente, es decir sin costo fiscal. Estamos hablando que estas circulares del BCRA financiaban flujos de actividad, ingreso de divisas y empleo. Como consecuencia de su eliminación paulatina desde 1977, con leves interrupciones, el desarrollo de nuevas exportaciones se vio siempre limitado en su potencial.
En este momento repentinamente todos los economistas están de acuerdo, al menos conceptualmente, en que serán las exportaciones las encargadas de aportar beneficios a una economía donde los capitales no fluyen. El problema es que los que coinciden con el enfoque central prevaleciente desde 1977, no saben qué hacer ni como provocar un impulso dinámico. Esa es la cruda realidad y la razón por la cual no exportamos por lo menos el doble de los volúmenes actuales. Sin duda nuestras exportaciones, pueden disparar vigorosamente el crecimiento y contribuir a resolver la catástrofe de la deuda externa. Es la única variable en positivo para generar superávit gemelos, nada ha crecido más este año que los ingresos fiscales provenientes de las retenciones a la exportación. El problema insisto, es que nadie ha propuesto un plan para crear un “boom de exportaciones”. A diario escuchamos que no hay financiamiento para exportar, que se necesitan inversiones que no llegarán por lo menos por cinco años, que no hay vocación empresaria, etcétera. Es ineludible en este y en cualquier tema de política económica trabajar con una decena de restricciones, pero debemos hacerlo. Dice un Proverbio: “El corazón del entendido adquiere sabiduría; y el oído de los sabios la busca”
*Pablo Tigani es autor del libro ARGENJAPAN´S la solución de la deuda y el despegue de la economía

jueves, 19 de diciembre de 2002

A cultural transformation

A Cultural Transformation in Argentina

We needed a change in conceptual vision. We finally began to play in two leagues simultaneously. The Combat League in a short term and the Match League of Long Term. This burst of a productive economy of exports, is not other thing that recognition and correction of our derivations. The irruption of a commercial- productive focus changes the way to do businesses and therefore the form to plan the life of Argentine citizens. We passed from twenty-five years depositing money for thirty days to strategic plans and productive development. We had first “the mother country contractor”, but later the “bank contractor”. Before the privatizations, the industrialists were suspected because they made businesses with the state. After the privatizations and the financial opening the banks lived doing businesses lending money to the state.
Why must we finish the “exclusively financial focus” in Argentina?
(Paraphrasing Bill Clinton in his electoral campaign) It is the clumsy culture!
The financial focus is an approach that has much to do with the Anglo-American culture and by the way it is useful to them. This perspective applied to businesses allows admitting the free circulation of capital, without of uncontrolled or excessive volatileness risks. This form to operate is related and requires what I could call a " conscience of own thing " as a country and individual citizens. For these cultures transcendental thing is the foundation. From their origins, they are countries with societies founded on Biblical principles emanated from "the Reformation", in time they made flexible, but always present in the popular thought. Respect by the private ownership in their communities, personal and familiar dependency of the own effort and the aid of God. The degree of necessary controls in a society with those original bases, is noticeably inferior to ones from a society that has lived without foundations by many years, in a permanent instability situation (historical reference: - from few years of independence, we already lived the anarchy) "every man for him self" could be written in the knavery manuals of the leadership in general. From the evaded one of his social layer, to the exaggerated conscientious public employee with three last names of his ancestry, although so foolish and rogue as the first one. Clearly, these are not economic problems but it influences and takes effect on the economy’s operations in a categorical and decisive way.
Living on foundations, is intimately bound to the reformist ethics, where people believe in the system because in consistent form, they are mainly confident and with a higher level of commitment than the average of the countries whose foundation is less solid. It’s for that reason this citizen are more confidant and his legal system works. A previous electoral survey in the United States showed that the ninety and nine percents of the voters would not vote by a non-believer President or without an explicit religious commitment. Is it truth that nobody imagines in Argentina a capable President to request pardon publicly? I could mention even the humiliating examples of a North American President, giving to details of his affair before the television cameras to the whole country. Later, a population that after listening to him forgave him and increased his popularity in vertiginous way. For many reasons that situation is not possible to live it here in Argentina today. I would like to imagine to a civil employee apologizes, but it does not happen. The ex- minister of the Convertibility, Domingo Cavallo, affirmed in the United States that he would never more accept to be Minister of Economy, wont he? In addition, "he does not have anything for regretting". An ex-
President and present possible candidate says: "my government was a most successful". The founding President of “cacerolazo” (hit the pot) or the phrase "all of you go away" said soon after his final leaving by helicopter: "a plot decided to finish my government". In addition another candidate for President, pretends that he was not Minister of the ex-
President De La Rúa during two thirds of its mandate. Three ladies with strong mass media image, two recognized Representative plus an ex- Minister and at this time all of them are candidates, that made campaign pre-electoral with De La Rúa, they never mentioned their political responsibility. A private university that it had recognized authorities and professors as Minister of Economy, Vice Minister, President of the Central Bank (BCRA), as thus also other civil employees in the economic and financial area, they do not assume responsibilities. The President of this university declared in a non-impartial mass media that all the misfortunes of Argentina are in the Congress and the politicians for those he and his training center were dedicated. It seems that in Argentina, nobody is mistaken nor regrets his errors. And much less one is prepared to apologize. Then on this way, the executives or bureaucrats of those societies of reformist origin do not consider reasonable to help. Remember that for its conformation, God and/or the personal effort are the one in charge to help, each one makes his part. Although it is a universal law and non-reformist, a principle to request aid is the following: first it is necessary to lament the errors, to assume them and then to request tolerance. Our politicians and economists, when they were in power, did not do it and they haven’t still done it. Those, who allowed the practice to take money cash and to spend it over the possibilities, and left the disadvantage to the next, they have not perturbed at least. This is long questionable. But by other side, moneylenders and bond investors, ambitious to yield crude and unrealizable profit, must become a reconsideration