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jueves, 29 de agosto de 2002

Ambito, El estado jugará un rol más activo

Por: Pablo Tigani*
Para: Ámbito Financiero-Comercio Exterior
Unas semanas atrás en Chicago, mientras salía para una reunión, eché un vistazo en una estación de TV, y un famoso programa de noticias irrumpía con un hombre esposado. Más escándalos y rumores en la bolsa por fraudes en los balances, provocaron en los días sucesivos expresiones críticas y serios temores, que hicieron bajar el índice Dow Jones por debajo de los 8.000 puntos. Esta situación impulsó la mediación directa del estado, que además del “show off” de Bush, hizo intervencionismo de la manera más ingenua o irreverente, según se lo quiera ver.
Unos días antes, un excesivo escepticismo sobre Latinoamérica había agudizado los problemas propios que observa la región. Las decisiones de apoyo más tarde, contradecían las expresiones previas del Secretario O´Neill, con respecto a rescates de países Latinoamericanos en problemas. -¿Quien imagina los alcances que tendría ejercer más presión sobre el abreviado flujo de capitales hacia los países emergentes?
Estos contrasentidos no son nuevos, pero están exacerbados hace un año, por las exigencias internas propias del país guía. La incertidumbre permanece. -¿En que rumbo marchará el mundo y particularmente la región con el actual liderazgo internacional?
Durante la década del noventa apreciamos los beneficios de la globalización, con su maravillosa revolución de las comunicaciones y la expansión de las nuevas tecnologías de la información. Un impulso renovado del intercambio comercial entre naciones, tuvo su pico en el año 2000, donde el crecimiento del comercio mundial tocó 13% anual. Pero -¿cómo sigue ahora? – Ese crecimiento del comercio que promedió el 7/8% en algunos tramos de la década del noventa, cayó a solo 1% el año pasado. Las proyecciones actuales anticipan una desaceleración del crecimiento de Estados Unidos preocupante. Estados Unidos solo, explica el 40% del crecimiento mundial. Hablamos de un país en donde el crédito de consumo es la principal propensión del sector privado y las necesidades del sector público actúan como una fenomenal aspiradora de recursos internacionales.
El enfoque de las políticas de reformas estructurales (privatizaciones y down sizing del estado) fue acertado y exitoso porque había mucha tela para cortar luego de la caída del muro de Berlín. Pero realizado el ajuste en la mayoría de los países, se consolidó un status de crecimiento global con concentración. De este modo, se ha puesto sobre el tapete mucha ineficiencia, consecuencia incuestionable de las empíricas reglas establecidas.
¿De que otro modo, podía continuar la burbuja de los mercados o la exhuberancia irracional que denunció vaticinadamente Alan Greespan?
Los casos Enron, Xerox, Vivendi, Global Clossing, WorldCom, Andersen; son un mero aspecto de los excesos de la liberalización, una pálida muestra de lo que podemos llegar a ver, si el gobierno norteamericano deja de intervenir en auxilio del mayor velocípedo mundial que se tenga memoria.
Los países y sus economías necesitan control especulativo e intervención mínima básica para cumplir con su rol en la sociedad.
Si las necesidades de atraer capitales en el norte no cesan y/o, a la bicicleta planetaria se le sale la cadena, las posibilidades de una crisis por carencia de financiamiento, puede poner en riesgo la globalización y yo diría, hasta su mismo liderazgo. Esto sin contar los factores políticos militares y religiosos que nos tienen afligidos desde hace un año, en una guerra, por ahora fría.
A partir de los episodios del once de Setiembre comenzó a prosperar un consenso intelectual que quedó expresado claramente en las decisiones de los países adalides de la liberalización de las décadas anteriores. Estados Unidos reaccionó luego de los atentados, a pesar de que su economía venía derrapando dos trimestres antes. La decisión fue: subsidiar, aumentar el gasto y bajar la tasa de interés. En un año la FED bajó un 73% la tasa (de 6,5% a 1,75% anual), el Congreso autorizó aumentos del gasto público por más de 40 mil millones, y simultáneamente aprobó una fuerte reducción de impuestos. Recientemente el Reino Unido de Gran Bretaña, volvió a estatizar los ferrocarriles. En Argentina, Correo y Aeropuertos están renegociando contratos de concesión, mientras los servicios elementales y las comunicaciones siguen sin colapsar, aún percibiendo tarifas 72% más bajas en dólares.
Si bien los mercados y las reformas estructurales ocuparon un lugar trascendental en el primer tramo de la globalización; comienza a existir en nuestros países, convicción de que el Estado jugará un rol mucho más activo de aquí en adelante. En mi opinión es un hecho irreversible. La presentación o lanzamiento de esta nueva perspectiva; como podemos advertir, ya comenzó a ser ejecutada por las dos naciones academia, del pensamiento económico histórico.
* Master en Política Económica Internacional- www.hacer.com.ar

domingo, 11 de agosto de 2002

The reengineering of the country


"I have a dream"

Rvd. Dr Martin Luther King

(The dream of racial equality was difficult but it arrived and changed the history of the United States)

A Simple Proposal to leave the standard monotony

This is a no conventional but vital proposal, with a stable and reliable partner who removes us from the isolation. The conditions of a long-term agreement with the IMF estimate conditions that before they have already appeared as accurate handling our economy to incorrect results. From the beginning of the globalization and long before in the capitalist world in the pos war countries, there was important variability between the different economies from the same system. France, Italy, Germany and Japan made different things with each other, in different times and all as well, made distant things with respect to the United States and Great Britain. Nevertheless, all this countries are part of G7. Why must we do something uniforms and conventional according to IMF´s norms? - For example Malaysian said not, Korea said: this is correct, but this one isn’t acceptable. Perhaps Chile could wait, also Hong Kong and Singapore resisted in the middle of the Asian crisis, but Argentina needs something new. The orthodox plans imply the fulfillment of goals. We have seen that fifteen among nineteen opportunities they were not reached by Argentina.

Instead of fixing only fiscal and monetary orthodox objects with aura of serious, we establish a strategic audacious proposal. An orthodox economist will say, “ it is impossible to duplicate exports in a year! He is right; it is impossible to reach that with an orthodox plan. It is necessary to break the conventional scheme. No exponential change can be obtained with a habitual adjustment. I remember an occasion, when I was an executive and the sales had declined. Taking advantage of the fact that the government had pay old prevision debts through bonds, we arranged a selling operation of domestic appliances in exchange for bonds, against the opinion of all staff. The company was allied with an expert

Bank, both facilitated the beneficiaries’ cash and suppressed the troublesome proceeding of shareholding. Gary Friedman, a young lawyer who got tired of the verdicts in North America; guilty or innocent asked himself: Will it be other alternative than this traditional bureaucratic one? As a result of that search, against whichever legal eminence’s opposition existed, it began the practice of "mediation”, which separated from the scene nothing less than the judge who made the decisions. I am music professor and an active Christian. Many people think that in churches only formal musicians, dressed in black play, and the atmosphere in which they sing to God is solemn and classic as in the Westerns. They should see "Delirious" (English musical group) just to mention a group. There are hundreds of them that fill football fields with believers who had abandon their communion with God. Color attires, fashion haircuts and electronic devices congregate Christians.

Competition among economists to prove who was the most orthodox stimulated resignation and eliminated the ingenious way (ingenuity). We must try new strategies of economic policy and be involved in changing intellectual habits. Let us experience the way to solve new problems with creativity.

Now Japan Represents The Best Opportunity to join Argentina to The Main League. The Perfect Key is Identified In Japan.

Japan: It’s a model country, productive, exporting, great and credible with low interest rates for financing businesses. As we previously said, Argentina has always been a seductive country for Japan.

Argentina: a country with 40 percents of excess capacity, the 44 percent of its working population is unemployed and sub-occupied. Until 2001 its relation Exports/PBI was below ten percent. It was in the first place of Risk Country with long permanence in the podium. It had a massive flight of capitals in 2001. The diminution in placing product in traditional markets (the U.S.A. and Europe) makes even more attractive the incursion of new limits. Because opening, also means to be ready to export to new markets. We cannot continue being a country closed to the commerce from the side of its exports and to remain concentrated in the traditional options. A “Pro Businesses of Export” atmosphere introduces all type of initiatives. In a company and a country, the only problem with no solution is when their products or services are not sold. When facing so many budget restrictions to export as tax promotions (lines of pre-financing credit, financing and post financing), attendance to fairs; even businessmen who examine exports possibilities render and do what "they can". That is to say, it’s exported what it’s demanded. In a more hostile world, as was already described, perspectives expose higher unemployment rates in the future. It is obvious that in those circumstances the world will turn more competitive. In order to face all type of restrictions to obtain scale, we will require experts in industrialization and exports.

Radical Reengineering for Argentine Economy’s Businesses.

Pure Innovation.

We needed a change in conceptual vision. If we run this proposal in Argentina, we finally began to play in two leagues simultaneously. The Combat League in a short term and the Match League of Long Term. This burst of a productive economy of exports, is not other thing that recognition and correction of our derivations. The irruption of a commercial- productive focus changes the way to do businesses and therefore the form to plan the life of Argentine citizens. We passed from twenty-five years depositing money for thirty days to strategic plans and productive development. We had first “the mother country contractor”, but later the “bank contractor”. Before the privatizations, the industrialists were suspected because they made businesses with the state. After the privatizations and the financial opening the banks lived doing businesses lending money to the state.

A Cultural Reengineering

Why must we finish the “exclusively financial focus” in Argentina?

(Paraphrasing Bill Clinton in his electoral campaign) It is the clumsy culture!

The financial focus is an approach that has much to do with the Anglo-American culture and by the way it is useful to them. This perspective applied to businesses allows admitting the free circulation of capital, without of uncontrolled or excessive volatileness risks. This form to operate is related and requires what I could call a " conscience of own thing " as a country and individual citizens. For these cultures transcendental thing is the foundation. From their origins, they are countries with societies founded on Biblical principles emanated from "the Reformation", in time they made flexible, but always present in the popular thought. Respect by the private ownership in their communities, personal and familiar dependency of the own effort and the aid of God. The degree of necessary controls in a society with those original bases, is noticeably inferior to ones from a society that has lived without foundations by many years, in a permanent instability situation (historical reference: - from few years of independence, we already lived the anarchy) "every man for him self" could be written in the knavery manuals of the leadership in general. From the evaded one of his social layer, to the exaggerated conscientious public employee with three last names of his ancestry, although so foolish and rogue as the first one. Clearly, these are not economic problems but it influences and take effect on the economy’s operations in a categorical and decisive way.

Living on foundations, is intimately bound to the reformist ethics, where people believe in the system because in consistent form, they are mainly confident and with a higher level of commitment than the average of the countries whose foundation is less solid. It’s for that reason this citizen are more confidant and his legal system works. An previous electoral survey in the United States showed that the ninety and nine percents of the voters would not vote by a non-believer President or without an explicit religious commitment. Is it truth that nobody imagines in Argentina a capable President to request pardon publicly? I could mention even the humiliating examples of a North American President, giving to details of his affair before the television cameras to the whole country. Later, a population that after listening to him, forgave him and increased his popularity in vertiginous way. For many reasons that situation is not possible to live it here in Argentina today. I would like to imagine to a civil employee apologizes, but it does not happen. The ex- minister of the Convertibility, affirmed in the United States that he would never more accept to be Minister of Economy, wont he? In addition, "he does not have anything for regretting". An ex-

President and present possible candidate says: "my government was a most successful". The founding President of “cacerolazo” (hit the pot) or the phrase "all of you go away" said soon after his final leaving by helicopter: "a plot decided to finish my government". In addition another candidate for President, pretends that he was not Minister of the ex-

President De La Rúa during two thirds of its mandate. Three ladies with strong mass media image, two recognized Representative plus an ex- Minister and at this time all of them are candidates, that made campaign pre-electoral with De La Rúa, they never mentioned their political responsibility. A private university that it had recognized authorities and professors as Minister of Economy, Vice Minister, President of the Central Bank (BCRA), as thus also other civil employees in the economic and financial area, they do not assume responsibilities. The President of this university declared in a non-impartial mass media that all the misfortunes of Argentina are in the Congress and the politicians for those he and his training center were dedicated. It seems that in Argentina, nobody is mistaken nor regrets his errors. And much less one is prepared to apologize. Then on this way, the executives or bureaucrats of those societies of reformist origin do not consider reasonable to help. Remember that for its conformation, God and the personal effort are the one in charge to help, each one makes his part. Although it is a universal law and non-reformist, a principle to request aid is the following: first it is necessary to lament the errors, to assume them and then to request tolerance. Our politicians and economists, when they were in power, did not do it and they haven’t still done it. Those, who allowed the practice to take money cash and to spend it over the possibilities, and left the disadvantage to the next, they have not perturbed at least. This is long questionable. But by other side, moneylenders and bond investors, ambitious to yield crude and unrealizable profit, must become a reconsideration: Who are really their friends in Argentina?

martes, 6 de agosto de 2002

Gold medal and standards recipes

Gold Medal and Standards Recipes

Gold Medals

An empty and declining civilization idolizes the apparent refinement education that some universities offer to. They adore supposed eminences; they say the numbers and the data that in appearance are solid and conclusive. In debatable and old-fashioned concepts, the capacity of an individual link together strongly to the ability of memorize and applying the stored information. In the university the highest qualifications were to people who had highest memory, or who were strongest concentrated in a single activity. In that evaluation scheme the Main Colin Powell could not qualify for Bush’s government and even Irving Wallace mustn’t have written so many books so extraordinarily meticulous. Additionally we can speak about Bill Gates who did not complete his studies. In the world, the conceptually old economists, usually comment that such-and-such person was gold medal by his qualifications, as if that assigned him more probabilities of been success in a position or their theoretical arguments could give them passion by the economy of their country and their people. On the other hand it would seem that the numbers never lie, nor distort the reality. It is always spoken of who has the best numbers in such-and-such country and really there are them good and very rigorous. But many people are convinced and transmit those ideas and even they make believe to the people that its life depends unconditionally on fundamentals. If the economy figures and the economists with better marks graduated at best universities, are the success indicators. How could the Argentine case be explained without looking for a scapegoat? Something that we have learned is that nobody knows enough to take a right guess of the GDP growth with a ten percents of variation margin in the next year. I don’t want to play the formation, student abilities and the high educational houses down. I myself, have a higher degree, all we have necessity of those knowledge. If a professional doesn’t know instruments, if he has not made exercises and works, she couldn’t participate in the connection of any idea and that must be deduced.

Argentina, Its Experience when applying Standard Formulas

If the Argentineans wish to offer a sustainable plan, it is sure that we can’t settle down from the same scheme that was experienced because of results reached. IMF’s Agreement as the nineteen signed from 1958, produced fifteen breach of contract, four of them without at least taking place the decided payments. But what is worse, from the last years of ex- President Alfonsin with the "Spring Plan " seven agreements were signed and it was only possible to be fulfilled one.

Since then we have already requested eighteen consecutive waivers the to the IMF´s board.

Since the sudden end of Proviso government in 1976, the stabilization plans generated a debt by 143 billions dollars. Nearly (globalize versions) from the Tequila we have had 20 trimesters with negative variation of the GDP (two third parts of the last seven years) - Which would be the reason to continue insisting? The alternative is a "boom of exports" in an innovating and creative scheme.